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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host
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To: wooden ships who wrote (7618)9/4/1998 10:54:00 PM
From: Math Junkie  Read Replies (1) of 42834
 
Truman, I think you're throwing the baby out with the bath water. Just as it was premature for Brinker to declare victory at DOW 8650, it is premature for you to declare his defeat. Prior to the current downturn, I remember Bob talking of an intermediate correction as a possibility, but if you are expecting him to forecast the depth of every correction, I think you are expecting the impossible, and something which is not in fact part of his timing model. He does not recommend jumping in and out of the market based on his outlook. The only reason he changes from dollar-cost-average mode to buy mode at certain price levels is because of the obvious point, which he has made repeatedly, that when prices are lower, risk is lower, and when prices are higher risk is higher. I2 has already told you that he adjusted his asset allocation in response to Bob's advice. Nevertheless, if you are looking for a short-term timing model, then in my opinion you are looking in the wrong place. My understanding is that Bob's timing model is attempting to warn of the next long-term bear market. We don't yet know if this is it, and that is why I say that it is too early to declare defeat.
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