Hi SilentZ; Re: "Just one thing on it -- in such a HUGE system with literally billions of variables such as the whole earth, science shouldn't need to predict everything... even if the temperature in the Antarctic had been going down over time, if the average temperature of the entire earth were warming, then climatologists predicting global warming, would still count as pretty darned predictive. No";
The billions of variables is why it's impossible to predict. So the predictions of climate science have been nothing more than guesses.
Now sometimes guesses are right, sometimes they are wrong.
With a huge and slow system like climate, the easiest prediction to make is that things are going to continue the way they are. For example, if you want to know what you should wear on your walk to work tomorrow, and you don't have any other information, you should consider the previous day's weather.
And so when the climate is hotter than normal, as it has been the last 30 years, it's easy to predict that next year the climate is going to be warmer than normal. But that's not what they did. They couldn't just say "it's warmer now", they had to make it scary so they predicted that it was going to keep getting warmer and warmer. And to make their scary story more believable, they told us that they could predict the climate. And that is where they were wrong.
Now there are branches of physics where billions of variables do not prevent very accurate predictions. But, right now, climate science is not one of those branches.
-- Carl |
