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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...?
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To: Labrador who wrote (7653)2/12/1998 12:23:00 AM
From: Andrew Fenic  Read Replies (1) of 13594
 
A number of triggers may cause AOL to lose between 45% and 70% of its value:

1. Any sizeable correction in the tech sector.

2. Any sign that AOL growth is slowing.

3. Any sign that competition from ISP's is heating up.

4. Any sign that subscribers are angry about the price hike.

5. Any of the regularly occurring AOL capacity shortage disasters.

6. A negative article in the WSJ trashing AOL's bloated fundamentals

Heck I'm just getting started. I could literally go on for weeks citing events that could pop the balloon. Generally though the best single sign is when irrational long investors start proclaiming that the stock can't go down. As soon as that happened with IOM, and it is happening with AOL now, IOM got its butt kicked so hard and so fast that to this date it has not and probably will never recover.

Look for AOL to get hurt badly. And soon.
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