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Technology Stocks : Presstek -- Stock of the Decade??
PRST 0.00010000.0%Sep 29 10:16 AM EST

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To: roy hendin who wrote (764)7/14/1996 6:53:00 PM
From: Richard F. Hubbell   of 11098
 
Good to hear from you Roy -

You asked about a run-up this week on connection with option expirations. I'm not too sure now, having watched them try to push it up all last week - just to see it hammered back. My observation is that once a stock declines by a whopping 65+% (200 --> 67) it encounters very stiff selling when it tries to rebound. In fact the selling usually becomes stiffer the higher it tries to go. The one thing that may get it up over 80 (maybe) is the fact that many people bought call options when PRST was down in the 55-45 range, in the hopes that a rebound would happen - which it has. The holders of these call options will be inclined to 'exercise' them the end of this week. The effect will be that the people that sold the options will go out and buy shares - to satisfy their legal requirements. This type of forced buying can push the stock up, if only briefly. The thing is, there appears to be new determination on the part of sellers (as evidenced last week, every time it got over 70) which will probably mute the effect of the forced buying. I am now looking for the high 70's - but will be happy to see higher prices if they materialize. Some of this activity will spill over into the early part of the following week by the way.
After this little drama plays out I think the stock will weaken - especially if the NASDAQ continues to get pounded. It is also possible (IMHO) that the insiders will sell in the near future. In any event the fall months will be extremely difficult (even in the absence of renewed insider selling) for PRST since people tend to sell stocks that have lost value in order to capture a capital loss on their federal income tax which they can then use to offset capital gains from other investments.
You can watch for 13-D filings, which report insider sales - that can be accessed (for free) on Edgar. I seem to discern a vague pattern of insider sales late in the month (when they occur). With all the legal horsepower lining up against the company, I would suggest that they will be very careful to follow the letter of the law in terms of filing (on time) and also not selling before say a 'bad' earnings announcement, which would naturally play into the hands of the people saying that the stock is/was manipulated.
Thanks for the note - and good luck to you. RH

P.S> You mentioned in a long ago post that you were 'a southern boy' - I hope that you were not harmed by hurricane Bertha. It appears from TV and the paper that some of the coastal regions of North/South Carolina were hit pretty hard.
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