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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: tejek who wrote (77356)10/27/1999 2:08:00 PM
From: kash johal  Read Replies (2) of 1577031
 
Ted,

Re:"I have a hard time buying into the idea that the shortage is due to demand as opposed to manu. problems (claimed by one analyst this AM). To me a shortage doesn't fit with intc's last earnings report.

Do you think that demand is that great? "

This whole situation is bizarre frankly.

With Intels manufacturing prowess I cannot believe that they can not manufacture/have manufactured several millions of cumines. And Paul has excellent contacts as well as PB who is in the middle of the mfg/development team. So yields cannot simply have crashed.

The only scenario that makes sense to me is that HP/Dell/IBM/GTW/CPQ all will want to push cumines. So even 5M units spread across the big 5 players gives only 1M each for rest of Q4. And the best bang for the buck is with Camino/DRDRAM.

So maybe there is no real supply for tier2/tier3 players.

And they are all basically waiting for the 820 with 2 RIMMS.

All i can assume is that Camino is on track for release by 11/15 at the latest and this does give enough time for everybody to sell 500K-1M units each by christmas when coupled by a huge launch.

In addition this was Intels "biggest ever launch" and yet there has been nothing in the consumer space about it. If we recall the SSE/PIII launch from earlier this year - there was quite some hype and ads etc.

So I expect they are holding off the "real consumer" launch till mid-novemberish.

The only other scenario I can see is that wafer yields etc are great but there is some yield/bin split killer at final test. But if this was the case they surely would not have done the launch on monday. I have to believe they must have had yield/final test history on several millions units before the formal launch.

I imagine tomorrow we will know a whole lot more.

regards,

Kash
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