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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
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To: Harshu Vyas who wrote (77413)4/8/2025 5:50:19 PM
From: Paul Senior1 Recommendation

Recommended By
Harshu Vyas

   of 78902
 
DEO. I sold my shares at a loss - ran out of patience.

At current very low price, I believe stock will recover as market recovers. Alcohol - demand for the beverages is always there. Profit margins are good. Stock is at p/e 15x vs. history of over 20x. Imo, the stock might recover to 20x. What would take this stock up? I don't foresee any business surprise (acquisition/new business/new beverage consumer must have). Could a positive earnings announcement be expected that would be large enough to have more than a one-day effect on the stock? I believe the stock will rise up again only if/as the market rises. Dead-money until the general market rises. Jmho. Therefore the question for me considering a buy is: Would I hold for the market rise, and when might that be? Skimpy div. wouldn't help keep me in.
For me, with DEO, I got tired of seeing red every day I held, and I finally sold. Didn't help that I averaged down several times and the stock never recovered over the two+ years I held it, thus magnifying losses.

That said, right now it seems like it could be a better choice than my current pick of food stock GIS. Also at 12 month low. Variety of products for various consumers (which include pets); a div yield 4% to help keep me in. No conviction though -- still only a tracking few shares.
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