SBH. Yikes, if you two are looking at it positively, I'm reconsidering my buy. I posted because it's slow here, and as I look through everything that I have and at the skimpy new lows list (and the long new highs list) there was nothing that appealed to me for a new purchase or an add to an existing purchase, given today's up markets. (I did add to my few shares of SIMO a little yesterday, but there's no need for the discussion to now go there -g-) I finally landed on SBH, and decided for a few dollars more risk, ok for me to add more to tracking position.
Looking closer after your posts:
SBH stock is down a bit on a very up day. Time ok to add more? Or could it be that if there's less SBH volume on a good market day like today than normal volume, it's a sign there's no notable interest in this company?
Company has announced that this year rev., etc. will not be as good as last year. Could this be already baked into the low stock price? And if nothing worse occurs - market remains resilient, company delivers per outlook, - then maybe stock price is near lows.
Revenue growth not so good past six years.
Company's been profitable though every year past 15.
Looking at annual numbers, annual p/e now is lower than it's been in past 15 years.
During past 15 years, sh. out. have come down from 180m to about 100m now.
I have bought this stock as a reversion-to-mean possibility:
Lowest stock prices past 15 years: 2020 @ $6.79, 2024 @$7.26
Lowest high stock prices past 15 years: 2024@13.28, 2025 @$14.79 (last 12mo.)
Stock closed at $8.63 (after hours).
Everything else being equal - which it never seems to be, I figure there's maybe a chance to a $2/sh drop to downside, and at least a $4.5/sh upside opportunity (to ~$13.28 again). In the past 15 years, SBH has traded above $19 sometime every year in 11 of the 15. Of course that's history. I don't know the business, but it must be more competitive now and require more management skill/resources for an on-line business as well as maintaining retail stores.
Your posts here have more focused me on what might actually be a significant risk/reward opportunity based on historical stock performance.
And if so, that for me means it's foolish for me to have come across this stock, see the potential, and only wager a few tracking shares because I don't have a line of sight to why the company or stock will do better.
Anyway, I punched up my position near market close. |
