I'm with ya, Skeet. If I were Bob, I'd go on and on about how smart you are since you agree with my analysis. <VBG>
Seriously, I think you nailed it. This bump was triggered by Greenspume's cautious comments that MIGHT be interpreted as hinting a rate cut. Or, might not. In any event, the next FOMC isn't till the last week of this month, and between now and then there will be a lot of prophesy. Personally, I'm agnostic about the rate cut, and think that even if we do get a 1/4 point cut, that the only real effect will be psychological. Don't get me wrong, psychology is what moves markets, but the psych without the econ will only cause spikes, not trends.
What I expect is a short term rally, stagnation till the FOMC, and then a continuation of the downtrend as the bear wakes up from his nap. I'll even predict 8650 (anyone remember this number?) as the high for Sept, before we resume the downtrend. Sure hope I'm wrong, though; When I unload, I'd rather do it at a profit.
Good trading, amigo,
jim |
