The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread Message Board

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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread

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Jan 28 4:00 PM EST

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To: marc ultra who wrote (772)	3/17/2001 3:30:07 PM
From: Gary D	of 10065

Welcome back. I can chime in that this debacle has been magnified for me by the fact that I closed out my short positions at the time of the Oct CTR call, and then followed the CTR recommendation. Oh well, at least we made a few bucks on the shorts. Comments on your scenarios: The "huge CTR" versus the "brief rally that gets sold into": I hope we get huge CTR, but I think investor emotions are different down here with QQQ in the low 40's versus if we were in the 60's. Paper losses are so great, that a lot of investors have shifted to 'fear-prone' from 'greed-prone'. For this reason a CTR could come up against tremendous resistance with just a 15-20% gain. I know the thought of getting out will cross my mind when QQQ hits 50, and I know I'm not alone. <g> After reading the Barron's article about tech stocks today, many could get a sense there are valid arguments to justify further big drops in some big-cap techs. With this in mind, getting out at levels 20% higher than today could seem quite attractive. Among the strategies to consider would be to attempt to short near the CTR peak. (And with a mental stop loss). Exit strategy could be to get out at a certain percentage of gain, or, if one has confidence in Bob's ability to identify MOABO, just hold until the MOABO call, regardless of the ups and downs (assuming the stop loss is not triggered). That being said, I suspect that some will be emotionally driven to take excessive risk to make up for their huge losses, and in so doing they will lose even more. I will give Bob's sell signal a lot of weight if I've not already sold at that time. Right now my thinking is not to sell more than half my 'CTR holdings' prior to Bob's exit, whenever it comes. But I have to admit that Bob's sell-signal advice for the CTR is not going to be as useful as it would be if he gave the criteria to be met for a signal to be issued. Is there a minimum level that must be achieved before he gives the signal? I hope not: We should be thankful to get out at QQQ=50, if there is then a fall to the low 30's. Gary

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