Justa,
I was thinking about this too, especially in light of Bob's less than favorable comments about AOL this past weekend.
Haven't had a chance to look into it further until now. First, here's a few data points:
- AOL opened the year at 78 (split adjusted).
- AOL saw a closing high of 167.5 on April 6.
- AOL is now trading in the 90's following a nasty fall
My take on this? Birinyi was correct about an AOL run-up, but it certainly was short-lived, and as we all know, AOL fell very hard. I suspect that he may be right again, although as Bob suggests, it would surprise me greatly if AOL sees it's old high again anytime soon. Additionally, if Birinyi is right about a strong AOL run-up coming, it may again be short-lived. For a few weeks, Bob may look wrong about AOL, but in my opinion he will come out to be the more accurate prognosticator ... 1) In the not-too-distant future, an AOL purchase today will not look too good, and 2) Internet stocks have value as trading vehicles.
The roller coaster ride of AOL this year certainly makes for attractive trading, IF one gets the timing right.
KurtSS |
