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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 314.52-0.6%Dec 11 4:00 PM EST
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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (78497)1/11/2018 12:03:11 AM
From: bigchad1 Recommendation

Recommended By
Donald Wennerstrom

   of 95572
 
That chart is very telling. Micron pretty much tracks AMAT across the 20 years but the last downturn was a bit longer and deeper for Micron back in 2015. That coincided with the time Micron was "catching up" to Samsung converting much of their manufacturing equipment to be on par (or at least approaching) with Samsung. So while AMAT and the rest of the SOX had a shallow correction if at all Micron lost all of its gains from 2013-2014 so that has really hurt relative performance. They had to "catch up" because the fell behind when they bought Inotera dirt cheap from the Japanese and took their eye off the ball because they were busy integrating Inotera into the operation. Mind you Samsung was still very profitable earning billions of dollars in memory during the last downturn. This is one of the things that certainly is different this time. Not only are there less players (oligopoly) but now all members are on a similar playing field so Micron should be able to earn billions as well during the next downturn. Last downcycle Micron was so far behind the curve they weren't able to take full advantage of the oligopolistic nature of the market. This time should be better. Hopefully sometime in the next decade they will start earning some good money on 3DXP which should also help smooth out cycles, a technology they introduced 3 years ago with Intel with much fanfare which at the time made you think it would have been omnipresent in the market by now. Oh well, good things come to those who wait as they say.
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