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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: Shack who started this subject	8/6/2003 1:29:03 PM
From: Henry J Costanzo	Read Replies (1) of 209892

Re stocks/bonds... From mid-April to mid-June, there was a sharp change from the preceding stock/bond relationship. Stocks and bonds started moving closely together.....rising together......falling together..... Relationship was so close that I was able for quite a while to use TNX as a key indicator even for stock wiggles.....with considerable success. All that changed with the incredibly rapid and sharp fall in bonds beginning in mid-June......That fall in bonds was NOT accompanied by a fall in stocks.....BUT.. stocks did not RISE either.... The equity rally was halted, and stocks basically went sideways. With the turnaround we're beginning to see in bonds now - and my guess that we've seen a bottom in bonds for a while - now wondering whether we will see a repeat of the April-June experience.......i.e., bonds and stocks rising together again for a while...??? As I've said before, believe this is a very complex area - and I certainly have no pretensions about having a real handle on it.. Thinking out loud here......Any and all thoughts much appreciated......g

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