Spin! Spin! 52%-44% and the "Race is Still Tight"
Diplomad blog
In many parts of the blogosphere you can read analyses of how the MSM is spinning the polls to favor Kerry. We were never 100% convinced but this CNN story pushes even the stodgy old Diplomad closer to accepting the "conspiracy theory" of polling.
Poll: Presidential race still tight
Kerry's debate showing not translating to popularity
(CNN) -- Although Americans think Sen. John Kerry did the best job in the debates, the Democratic nominee appears to have lost some ground to President Bush in the popularity contest, according to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll released Sunday.
The poll interviewed 1,013 adult Americans by telephone Thursday through Saturday, including 942 who identified themselves as registered voters and 788 who indicated they were likely to vote. In the previous Gallup poll, taken October 9-10 after the second debate on October 8, Kerry and Bush were tied at 48 percent among registered voters. The latest poll, taken after the third and final debate last Wednesday in Tempe, Arizona, indicated an edge of 49 percent to 46 percent for Bush among the same group. That is still practically even -- given the margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The October 9-10 poll had a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points. But among likely voters Bush had a larger spread -- 52 percent to 44 percent. That compared with a 49 percent to 46 percent edge for Bush in the previous poll. Independent candidate Ralph Nader had 1 percent among both groups in each poll. In the most recent poll, 46 percent of all those interviewed thought Kerry did a better job in last week's debate than Bush, who had 32 percent. Yet as Democrat Al Gore learned in 2000, winning a debate on points does not necessarily translate into electoral votes.
As in 2000, Bush's favorability ratings -- how Americans view him as a person -- went up after a debate that voters say he lost -- from 51 percent in the October 9-10 poll to 55 percent in the most recent poll. Kerry's favorability rating remained flat, at 52 percent in both polls. The question had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
One reason Kerry has not been able to translate his debate showing into a lead in the popularity contest could be that voters think he is too liberal. Bush emphasized that label at Wednesday's debate, and it seems to be sticking. Nearly half of all respondents -- 47 percent -- in the most recent poll said Kerry's political views are too liberal. Four in 10 said Bush is too conservative. The margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points. <...>
Republicans seem more enthusiastic about the election (77 percent) than do Democrats (65 percent) and thus more likely to vote, as reflected in Gallup's likely voter model. Respondents who identified themselves as Bush voters were also nearly unanimous in thinking their candidate would win -- 88 percent. A quarter of Kerry voters said they think their candidate would lose.
Isn't that swell? So if you ask people who are ACTUALLY GOING TO VOTE (how about that for a concept?) it turns out the President has a considerable advantage, one well outside of the infamous MOE (Apparently that stands for Margin of Error; not Moe Howard, as we thought originally.) We've been overseas too long, it seems, but we had assumed that elections were supposed to be decided by people who actually vote, not just those who yammer away in chic cafes.
We also can't help but wonder who declared whom a winner in the debates? Probably the same people at CNN who predicted the Taliban would defeat the US military and that we'd never take Baghdad. The liberal crack up continues in full swing. |
