Thanks for the great tables! Scary that with such growth for 2017.... will there be any growth in 2018 or 2019? Predictions are yes for 2018, but we know how those go.
First as Kirk pointed out, Dec this year was the highest for the year, also the month of Dec has always been green going all the way back to 2009, a period of 9 years.
Second as to Bob's question, Jan has been red going back to 2012, a period of 6 years. My guess is anyone on a fiscal budgeting cycle for capital equipment fills out their allotment before they lose it. Old game. At HP we'd have a list of the really nice equipment we wanted to get and if at the end of the FISCAL year we hadn't had our budgets slashed do to slowing sales, we'd order it so we could get an even larger capital equipment budget the next year PLUS get the great, new tools to do our jobs better.
Second, Chinese New Year is a shutdown for a week in Asia so billings (accepting equipment) are usually lighter in Jan/Feb.
But the table also shows, looking along the bottom line, how cyclical Billings have been over the years. The volatility has been tremendous, just look at many of the wild swings going from year to year. The analysts keep "hammering" Micron for its cyclicality, but Micron's cyclicality is nothing compared to the bottom line of this table. The reason I got into the sector is you don't have to guess what stock to buy... Palm, Apple, IBM, HP, MU, AMD, Intel, etc... or what options to buy for added return...
The capital equipment stocks are similar to stock options that don't expire. Get the timing wrong and you just hold for another cycle as anyone with a brain understands this is where the growth will be.... at least it's worked for me since the mid 1990s... -g- |
