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Biotech / Medical : Boston Scientific (BSX) Any Comments???
BSX 100.72+0.1%Oct 31 9:30 AM EST
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To: OldAIMGuy who wrote (786)7/1/2002 11:54:52 AM
From: Lighthouse  Read Replies (1) of 798
 
I may be completely wrong, but earnings estimates for BSX are about to be reconfigured for 03 and 04. Two reasons:

1) To wit: I cannot see how GDT gets to market a paclitaxel stent without going through BSX. The judge governing this case has been very clear. Cook and BSX are the only two firms envisioned in the Angiotech agreement. I doubt GDT just decideds to wait for everolimus in 2005 and hope it works. Leaving a quality sales force with no product to sell is suicide. GDT has to have access to paclitaxel; therefore, they have to deal with BSX. BSX will make them pay through the nose for access. Big royalties accrue to BSX. The nice thing about royalties is they fall almost entirely to the bottom line. 03 and 04 estimates have to move up for BSX.

2) Right now paclitaxel is only forecast to capture 35% or so of the coated stent market in 03, 04, 05. IF results from paclitaxel in Septemeber show continues excellent results, this market share number may drift north. JNJ's clinical lead appears to be shrinking a bit. Any shift in market share accrues to BSX (or GDT which has to pay BSX anyway).

BSX is looking increasingly good to me.

P.S. So does GDT.
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