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Technology Stocks : Vitesse Semiconductor

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To: Duane L. Olson who wrote (787)8/5/1997 7:44:00 AM
From: OldAIMGuy   of 4710
 
Geeez Duane, Don't say that! I sure hope I get more than ONE VTSS in my lifetime!!!
A favorite book is called "100 TO 1 IN THE STOCK MARKET" by Thomas Phelps. It's a bit hard to find, but worth the search. It was written in 1971. I'll see if I can get the ISBN # for it. He lists about 300 stocks (most of which, the names you would know) that had risen 100-fold in periods of less than 10 and up to 40 years. He traces out what it took to find these companies in their early stages and defines search patterns. He was a Buy&Hold advocate. I won't hold it against him!! His experience in the market was over 40 years, starting just before the Crash of '29.
What was most interesting for me as an AIMer, was what he had to say about several of the stocks. He recounted that you could have purchased $10,000 of one stock 40 years earlier and made $1,000,000 ($100 to $1). He then says that you could have done the same at 32 year, 20 years, 14 years, and 8 years of holding the SAME stock. In other words, the price had cycled to the same low several times in history before it took off for the stratosphere. He says that this is good, because it offered the investor many chances to get started right. As an AIMer, it would offer me several cycles to let AIM build the portfolio BEFORE it took off. Chances are with that many cycles, I'd have at least twice the number of shares at the 8 year mark than I would have had at the 40 year mark. Interesting!
I love the rocky road of new technologies. I've had my share of loosers (like Chronar Corp. and American Solar King!!!!) but when these little beauties take off, they compensate nicely for our research and faith. AIM won't save me from a looser, but it does help with the stocks that survive and grow - but sporatically. Lots of fun. I started with $20,000 invested in VTSS before it took off, and now have over $40,000 in CASH RESERVE and more than twice the starting value left in shares. It didn't optimize the total return, but it did provide risk management acceptable to an 'unemployed' person with two kids yet to start college!!!
Sorry to get so 'windy'!!!
Best regards,
Tom
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