Re: data speeds, i-mode, etc.
Everything else being equal, where there's a choice and low switching costs, faster rules.
In the U.S., the rate at which this change might have a corollary is the adoption of cable/DSL broadband versus dial-up. Some are arguing that those 56.6 modems (and even some 28.8's) will hang around, in bulk, far longer than many stock market players think. (I posted a link to some such research study on the WCOM thread.) I think wired broadband take-up will be a good metric for us to watch as a clue to wireless "broadband" (Coots, I know MC isn't technically broadband) take-up.
With respect to applications, even though IS-95B, Sprint's suite of businessperson's web tools announced today deserves some watching also. I hope it's a huge hit, not just for current CDMA sales, but as a hint of what could come. But it might not be huge.
In addition to availability (footprint) there are always issues with cost to the masses that affect take-up rates.
Carriers get to set the prices. They tend to go high at first and work their way down. Enormous frustration vented by GSTRF investors over this state of affairs. Such is life in telecoms.
Realism in judging present value of cash flows important in a Q investment. The "other guys" are experts at squeezing out the last drop of cash in legacy systems, and then squeezing out more cash via incremental upgrades. Helpful to such a strategy is utilizing political and industry clout to restrict or eliminate competition.
I am more and more understanding Irwin Jacobs' statements that delays in WCDMA implementation is what is keeping him awake at night.
The "other guys'" 30-64KB intermediate solutions may have a surprisingly long life in protected markets, as will DoCoMo's WCDMA99, which I would say for certain will have a much more powerful application that i-mode as its "killer app" in order to compete with KDI etc. (that'd be DoCoMo iXtreme-mode.) <g> |
