WELCOME! [Kathryn Jean Lopez 10/19 08:39 AM]
Today's the first day of NRO's new battleground feature, which we'll be running through the duration of the election. Stop in here daily for updates from key battleground states. Our contributor list will be growing and changing while we head to results day (whenever that may be!), so get in the habit of looking here for freshness, news, and analysis.
Thanks to everyone who has agreed to contribute — some who we'll hear from today, others who will roll out by week's end. I hope you find this useful-and thanks, as always, for reading. Feel free to send comments to battleground@nationalreview.com.
Battlegrounders
[ archives email ]
IOWA: ASHLEY’S STORY BEING TOLD AND RETOLD [Brian Kennedy 10/19 03:43 PM]
For those who follow my work with www.CampaignOfOne.org you know that I have grown to doubt the impact of political television advertising. However, it is true that the exceptional commercial with the right message at the right time can still cut through the clutter and move votes. Ashley’s Story is one such commercial. This morning, the advertisement sponsored by the Progress for America Voter Fund hit the airwaves across Iowa and other battleground states. I first read about it in the USA Today. By noon a friend had mentioned the ad to me and I just now actually watched it for myself. It is the most powerful, poignant, and compelling spot to air this campaign. It tells a simple story that speaks volumes about the President’s character and convictions. Watch it now and tell your friends.
OHIO: AN E-MAILER [Kathryn Jean Lopez 10/19 03:30 PM]
"John Kerry will be in Youngstown, Ohio on Thursday to do some duck hunting. Democrats traditionally need about 70% in this area to carry the state. Could this be a sign of desperation on Kerry's part, to shore up a part of his base he should already have?"
OHIO: AS OHIO GOES…? [Peter W. Schramm 10/19 03:25 PM]
The state happens to reflect the country as a whole demographically and there is this massive fact: The last time a Republican presidential candidate won Ohio but not the White was 1944 when Dewey beat FDR by about ten thousand votes in the state; and no Republican has ever become president without winning Ohio. It may be argued that if Kerry can peel off Ohio from the Bush red states of 2000, and hold Pennsylvania, he can become president. While Bush seems to have more options to pick up blue states than Kerry has to pick up red, it would seem that Bush needs to hold the Buckeye state. His organization on the ground recognizes this and they have put a Herculian effort into it. Bush is an omnipresent presence here, as is Kerry. As with other battleground states, the Democrats have added many thousands of new voters on to the voting rolls. But more on that later, as well as on a court's interpretation of the provisional ballot issue, both of which may have an effect on the outcome.
OHIO: CLOSE CALL [Peter W. Schramm 10/19 03:24 PM]
In 2000 George W. Bush got 49.97% of the votes cast in Ohio to Gore's 46.46% (Nader got 2.50%, Buchanan got 0.57%, and Harry Browne had 0.29%). Nader is not on the ballot and Buchanan has endorsed Bush. It is close in Ohio, no doubt about it. Is it likely that Kerry can cut back on the number of Ohioans who voted for Bush in 2000? I think it unlikely, but the Ohio Poll (University of Cincinnati), out today, shows Kerry ahead 48-46% among likely voters, with about 6% either voting for someone else or undecided. On the other hand, a few days ago Rasmussen had it Bush 49-47%.
IOWA: DIVIDING AND CONQUERING [David Hogberg 10/19 02:30 PM]
Brian has gotten Iowa off to a great start, so let me just add a few points of information.
Iowa can be divided up into political thirds. The Western third, which encompasses all of Congressional District 5, is heavily Republican. The middle third is a mix, with heavy Democrat areas like Des Moines and GOP areas like the suburbs. The eastern third, which traces the Mississippi, is heavily blue collar and heavily Democrat. However, note that the three congressional districts that touch the eastern border, 1, 2 and 5, all have Republicans representing them (Jim Nussle, Jim Leach, and Tom Latham, respectively). The reason is that a lot of the Democrats here are culturally conservative. These are the ones that are likely to support a lot of Bush’s actions in the war on terror, and are opposed to gay marriage. Bush has room for vote gains in this area over 2000.
The one exception is the Iowa City (a.k.a., “The People’s Republic of Johnson County”) where the University of Iowa is located. Jim Leach represents this area, and as a result he has opposed the action in Iraq and opposed the 2003 tax cut. Say what you will (and I will—he’s a RINO) he gets reelected in a district that should have a Democrat representing it.
Iowa is a something of a bellwether state for Democrats. The GOP hasn’t won a presidential race there since Reagan’s landslide of 1984. (Yes, it even went for Dukakis). Although we’ll probably have a pretty good idea of how the race is shaping up by the time Iowa is called on election night, a win by Bush there and you can bet that Bush is doing well across the nation. Of the last five polls done in Iowa by firms not representing one of the parties, Bush lead in two, Kerry leads in two, and the other is a tie. If Bush starts to open a lead in the Hawkeye state, Kerry is in trouble.
WASHINGTON: THE EAST SIDE [D. F. Oliveria 10/19 01:54 PM]
There are two Washingtons: Urban Kerry country on the west side, and Bush Flyover Country, east of the Cascades. Almost all the east side is represented in the state legislature by Republicans, except three districts in the heart of Spokane, the second or third largest city in the state, depending on whom is counting heads on a given day. Generally, the west side overwhelms the rural east, and its candidate wins. This year probably will be no different in the presidential race. President Bush won the east side handily four years ago despite losing the state to Vice President Al Gore. Bush may not win the east as big this year, if the editorial page of the Spokesman-Review is any indication.
Four years ago, the Spokesman-Review endorsed Bush enthusiastically, despite deep divisions on the Editorial Board, stating "The White House needs a good scrubbing," after eight years of Bill Clinton. On Sunday, eastern Washington's dominant paper barely concealed its contempt for the way Bush has conducted the war in Iraq and for his inability to unite the country. The paper, however, considered Kerry too liberal and too wishy-washy on the crucial issues of national defense and the war on terror. Quote: "Reluctantly, this newspaper recommends President Bush as a better choice to protect the country from attack, to win the peace in Iraq, and to use tax cuts to stimulate the economy to recovery." Overall, the editorial board preferred Kerry, but Publisher Stacey Cowles preferred Bush. Game, set, match, to Bush.
But such a lukewarm endorsement for Bush by a moderate-to-conservative newspaper spells trouble for Bush in Washington state.
PENNSYLVANIA: ANOTHER NADER STATE? [Chris Lilik 10/19 01:43 PM]
Nader's name was off the ballot, then on, and is now off again, but Nader's folks are trying to get the Pa. supreme court to look into the matter. This promises complications with Nader-inclusive military ballots already mailed out.
And Nader isn't the only third-party-type problem. Pa.'s complicated write-in requirements are turning some heads. The current Pa. write-in policy discourages presidential write-ins altogether, since they won't be counted unless you happen to know oodles of hard-to-find information.
PENNSYLVANIA: HOW THE SWING GOES [Chris Lilik 10/19 01:33 PM]
The Keystone State is always listed among the swing states, but how much is it really in play? Depends who you ask.
Today's new Survey USA Poll shows Kerry beating Bush by 6 points, and other polls continue to show Kerry with a slight lead, while most project a closer two to four point race.
Over the past week there have been rumors that the Bush campaign was cutting down its TV ads and pulling out of PA (see here and here), as well as rumblings that key out of state volunteer blocks were being shifted to Ohio instead of Pa. But this Thursday Bush will be in Hershey and Cheney will be in Scranton, and Bush is heading to Wilkes-Barre the following day, so this rumor should be taken with a grain of salt.
The Bush campaign has also been very busy hiring more and more operatives all over the state. This is not to say the Kerry team has not been effective as well, with reports that Kerry signs are popping up in traditional GOP Philadelphia suburban areas where Democrat signs have never been seen before. Like most of the state, Kerry also seems to have a sign advantage in areas like Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) and Blair County (Altoona).
Speaking of signs, mysterious Kerry/Specter signs are appearing in the Philadelphia area, financed by a group called the Philadelphia Education Project. The real story here is that the committee was apparently started by GOP Specter operative Roger Stone to push Kerry and Specter.
NEW MEXICO: FRAUD IN THE AIR [Rod Adair 10/19 01:20 PM]
The spectre of vote fraud hangs over the entire state. Democrats, Republicans, and Nader supporters fought a month-long battle in New Mexico's courts that finally ended up with Nader on the ballot, but no ID required for upwards of a hundred thousand new registered voters. Thousands of fake registrations had already been identified by the Bernalillo County (Albuquerque) clerk in August, but now discoveries of forms at a crackhouse busted over the weekend have led many to conclude that New Mexico's five electoral votes will most likely hinge on the number of fraudulent voters who get to vote. With early voting already starting and worries about voting-machine errors not forgotten, confidence level is not high.
IOWA: THE UNDECIDEDS [Brian Kennedy 10/19 11:28 AM]
How will the indecisive Iowan decide? When the swing voter in Iowa can't make up his or her mind, my experience is that they fall back on a sense of cultural affinity. Here the clear advantage goes to President Bush. Or maybe it's more apt to suggest the clear disadvantage goes to Kerry. As Des Moines Register political columnist David Yepsen offered this morning:
"Kerry has particular trouble connecting with rural voters. A survey conducted last month for the Center for Rural Strategies showed Bush leading with rural voters by 13 points. Religion, patriotism, gun issues and family values are all part of the disconnect. Bush's plain-speaking country image is more familiar to these voters than Kerry's reserved, Eastern one."
In a close election in Iowa, cultural affinity is the Bush-Cheney trump card.
IOWA: WHAT'S HAPPENING NOW [Brian Kennedy 10/19 11:26 AM]
Here is the current state of play in Iowa. Every other day at least one of the candidates or their spouses visits the state. In fact, it's hard to draw crowds for surrogates because all you have to do is wait 24 hours before a campaign organizer offers on-stage VIP seating for yet another town hall meeting. Soon we will be out of townhalls in which to hold a meeting.
Both sides and their allies are waging shock and awe television advertising blitzes and have D-day like ground wars underway. Voter registration drives, early voting, vote-by-mail, door knocking, telemarketing, push polls and more. We have it all, 24/7. My view is this is all fine and well for turning out the decided vote, but it is doing little to persuade that handful of undecided voters who will decide our national fate.
IOWA: CENTER OF THE UNIVERSE, AGAIN [Brian Kennedy 10/19 11:25 AM]
With two weeks to go, Iowa finds itself in familiar territory as the center of the political universe. Every four years the Iowa Caucuses serve in large part to determine the destiny of would be Presidents. In 2004, Iowa gets a second bite at the apple as it is clear Iowa's seven electoral votes are vital to victory.
In the past several presidential elections, Iowa's popular vote mirrored the national popular vote. In 2000, Gore squeaked out a narrow victory, carrying the state by a mere 4,000 votes. All indicators suggest that 2004 will be another photo finish. So what happens here between now and when the vote count is certified, isn't going to stay here.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: THE GROUND GAME [Chip Griffin 10/19 11:12 AM]
The presidential campaigns seem to be single-handedly keeping the paper industry in business. For more than a week, the flood of direct mail has been mind-boggling. My wife is a registered Independent (the largest registration bloc here in the Granite State) and I'm a Republican. Between the two of us, we have at least one piece of mail from the DNC and RNC in our mailbox every day. In addition, George Soros was kind enough to send a lengthy pamphlet and NARAL has peppered my wife with postcards (in addition to a generic autocall we got from them about 10 days ago featuring some actress I had never heard of — but then I'm not the target audience for her am I?). Today's mail featured the RNC telling me about all Bush has done for small business and the flip side castigated Kerry over support for high taxes and trial lawyers. Meanwhile, the DNC sent a large mailer with a side by side comparison of Bush and Kerry on health care.
It's only a matter of time before the letter carriers union sends a postcard complaining about the unfair working conditions created by the presidential campaign.
MISSOURI: REPUBLICANS IN THE MONEY [Matt Simpson 10/19 11:11 AM]
In a race that the state Democrats had hoped to contest, Senator Kit Bond has a solid lead not only in the polls, but also in fundraising as he has raised $8.4 million to his opponent's, Nancy Farmer's, $3.1 million. Bond currently has $3.1 million in his treasury compared to Farmer's $723,638. For those of us here in Missouri, especially in the Ozarks, Bond's financial advantage is clearly demonstrated through the one-sidedness of the ad war. Rep. Roy Blunt, from Missouri's seventh district (southwest Missouri), also has a commanding lead over his challenger Jim Newberry, a local lawyer and Blunt's first serious competition in some time. Newberry has raised a total of only $194,323 compared to Blunt's $2.4 million. Newberry had about as much hope of winning as the Royals had of going to the World Series, but was running primarily to try to cut down Blunt's, and therefore other Republicans, margins here in Missouri's conservative stronghold that is key to any Republican victory statewide. However, Newberry's financial trouble has prevented his message from getting out and also resulted in the resignations of his campaign manager and a few other employees a few weeks ago. Watch for Blunt to win re-election with around 70% of the vote again and other Republicans, including President Bush, to maintain their necessary large margin of victories here in the proud home of John Ashcroft.
MINNESOTA: POLLS & SCHEDULES [Scott W. Johnson 10/19 11:10 AM]
In 2000, Minnesota was a powder blue state — Gore edged Bush in Minnesota by only 60,000 votes out of 2,450,000 cast, 47.9 to 45.5 percent. Ralph Nader essentially carried the balance; Minnesota was one of Ralph Nader's strongest states. Nader is on the ballot in Minnesota again this year.
Gary Gregg, NRO's official electoral-college dean, has tentatively moved Minnesota into Kerry's column and accordingly designated Minnesota a powder blue state. Gregg's designation appears reasonable; Kerry holds a 5-point lead in the last poll conducted by the Minneapolis Star Tribune, although Rasmussen has the race tied in the most recent public poll of Minnesota voters. We think that Minnesota remains a battleground state.
Today's Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that John Edwards will be stumping this afternoon in traditional Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party territory in Hibbing, Minnesota, best-known as Bob Dylan's hometown. On Thursday Kerry himself will tout a "Fresh Start For America" while addressing a rally in the parking area adjacent to the Metrodome in downtown Minneapolis. Reading the tea leaves, the Kerry campaign must lack confidence that Minnesota is poised to break its way on November 2.
What about the Bush campaign? It has scheduled President Bush to appear in Republican stronghold of Rochester tomorrow. The Bush campaign rightly senses that Minnesota presents a prime opportunity to turn a blue state red. |
