Anybody have any clue what 4th quarter sales will be, what is current
analysts estimates? I keep reading how everyone thinks it will be huge, but
I want to know how huge.
IMO 3rd quarter doesn't really matter, unless IOMG posts seriously low
numbers or even a loss. Yet I can't believe that IOMG will do THAT poorly
this quarter. Why? The company's mission is to make the Zip the standard.
I see two criteria in achieving this goal:
1. Getting as many Zips out there as possible (hence the rebate)
2. Another factor in creating a standard is having a viable business
making profits. If IOMG loses money and the stock plummets, consumers
may think twice about purchasing a product from a company that appears
to be going under (look at Syquest). In this regard the stock price
does matter in that it can effect consumers perception of the co.
I think KE is a good CEO, and I think that he would only issue a rebate to the extent
that the co. could still turn a profit.
My thoughts on 4th quarter: $400-500 million in sales possible. In a completely
unscientific manner I guessed at current sales momentum and tried to extrapolate
it through 4th quarter. If IOMG does earn $270 million in 3rd (as analysts expect)
then that averages $90 million/month). But as we know July was slow, August good,
and Sept. great. I assumed equal momentum, i.e. $75 - July, $90 - Aug., $105 - Sep.
I cannot believe that momentum will slow down given IOMG's fall advertising push
and the fact that the Zip and the Jaz are "cool", "fun" Xmasy products.
With momentum equal to that of July, Aug, and Sep., I extrapolated to Oct - 120,
Nov. - 135, and Dec. - 150 = $405 million in revenues. I also think that this may
be conservative.
Anyone have any thoughts as to 4th quarter? Is my reasoning completely faulty?
-nk |
