Duane,
Just another thought. GSM, at this point, is the absolute entrenched standard in Europe, having virtually eclipsed analog and with no attempt to create a second digital standard. It is also widely embraced in many Pacific Rim countries, and is designed with the idea of quick portability from one area to another (using smart cards) as well as global roaming.
In the US, most handset sales are still analog. It'll take a while for digital to take over, and I expect a shakeout before a final "standard" is established.
So your assertion that CDMA has "grown" is also somewhat false. Their stock price has grown nicely, as have their costs and (recently) their revenues. But they still have only a tiny installed base, when compared to the entire world, and they are no longer in development mode. They need to perform and sell against some of the biggest and most sophisticated consumer electronics companies around, all of whom will be pushing the non-proprietary standard. IMO, they are the one most likely to fail in the likely "shakeout" in the US. They've already lost in most of the world by being so late to market.
mg |
