Roger's 1997 Short Picks Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks

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To: Craig Gordon who wrote (7921)	12/6/1997 12:18:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa	Read Replies (1) of 9285

Craig >>I'm looking for the market to hit 10,000 on the dow and maybe by within 13 months. I don't think 98 will be a good environment for the shorts.<< you may be right that is why I am 30% net long. If the market rallies I will definitely loose quite a bit of the upturn, unless I did extremally well in picking my shorts but I rather have low expectations so that if the market goes up, I will only capture 30% of the move if my sotck picking hability is not better than a dart [which may be the case]. However if the market tanks I will only go down appx. 30% of the down move. Is just a matter of risk preference: you don't risk much so you do not get much but do not loose much either! Now, I just saw my taped version of WSW and an intersting thought I had is that as I recall no one or very few people were predicting a 25% return year for 97, and they were wrong! now I have heard several places the dow should move up 1000, I hope they are not proven wrong! noone actually knows what will happen. A guy as smart as Malkiel in his random walk down wall street book, if you read his views on the late 95/96 market you will laugh! his forecast totally missed the bull market we had in 96.97. Pancho

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