GST,
I have to confess I don't understand why you are so convinced we'll get a crash. Even if you are right about where the averages end up, what's to prevent them from grinding slowly lower? (Incidentally, while I think the bull market psychology could handle a crash, I think a series of bottoms that fail to hold would fundamentally alter psychology for the first time in this decade. )
JFTR, I'm not terribly bullish here, but am 80% invested, all on the long side. (I will enter some shorts, such as UBID and selected financials, in the next rally, if it materializes.) I guess I keep thinking about 1994, when a lot of excess got wrung out of the market, but players who were careful about leverage and attentive to the underlying causes of the deterioration were able to make nice gains in stocks like ASND.
Best,
Ganesh |
