Battlegrounders
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PENNSYLVANIA: MIXED INDICATORS [Chris Lilik 10/22 11:40 AM]
Greater Philadelphia Region Status Report from Young Conservatives of Pennsylvania Philadelphia County chairman Dan Gomez:
Philadelphia, PA – Mostly bad news for Bush in this region. Conventional PA election wisdom holds that the Republican suburban counties need to provide a buffer against the Democratic juggernaut.
But new registration numbers may be showing that the buffer is weakening while the juggernaut is growing. According to the Philadelphia Inquirer, Bucks, Chester and Montgomery County Republicans all lost ground to the Democrats – by 2,000, 3,000 and 50,000 registrations respectively. Meanwhile, heavily Democratic Philadelphia gained over 100,000 in new registrations, with just under 7,000 of them Republican. The campaign has made it known to local Republicans that it needs to lose Philadelphia by no more than 250,000 votes.
The actions of party auxiliaries also should be worrying for Bush. Democratic Governor Ed Rendell is coming to bat for Kerry. Rendell, who has been extremely popular in the suburban counties, may well make the job for Bush far more difficult in this region.
The only Pennsylvania Republican that could potentially stem this tide, and help Bush in the suburbs, Senator Arlen Specter, recently showed that he has no intention of helping the President. One of his operatives was reportedly behind the "Kerry & Specter for Working Families" signs that have been popping up.
There are, however, three rays of hope that may yet give hope to the president:
1)Mike Fitzpatrick. His congressional campaign out in Bucks County may help to bring out the conservative vote in the suburbs.
2) Amish registration out in Lancaster County. Republicans have reportedly had a great amount of success bringing out the vote in this area. There are no raw numbers yet, but of those that vote, almost all will vote for Bush.
3) The Kerry campaign felt it necessary to bring Bill Clinton to Philadelphia to help shore up the base. If Kerry is willing to use Clinton's limited time in Philadelphia, they may not think those newly registered voters are as reliable as they originally thought.
Though these factors may help on Election Day, there is likely to be limited. Unless the Bush campaign can seriously crank up GOTV in the suburbs, it looks like they may need to find a new buffer somewhere else in the state. |
