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Strategies & Market Trends : The Options Box

QQQ 625.58

-0.3%

Dec 11 4:00 PM EST

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To: t2 who wrote (7988)	12/3/2000 1:08:08 PM
From: dli	of 10876

The problem with those statements by communications chip company CEOs is that they are the last ones to find out about a slowdown as they're at the very end of the supply chain. As for MU, I believe that there's still about 50% downside risk. As a commodity product producer MU basically trades off the DRAM spot price and the last time those were at current levels MU was trading around $15 split-adjusted. Add to that the signigicant slowdown in the PC biz and I would not bet the farm on it at current levels. What I have started to dip my toe in is selected semi equips like CMOS. I believe the group as a whole should bottom sometime in Q1 or early Q2 as then upward earnings revisions should kick in in anticipation of the cycle trough. Dave

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