IPO may not rise very much tomorrow
according to a research analyst I know who specilizes in anticipating the pricing of IPO's in the aftermarket. he feels that these share are already well valued into that $10 range and expects only a 10-20% rise in trading tomorrow. he concedes that if the word get's out to individual investors as it did with RMBS (Rambus) last month, that the thin float of much less that the 3 million share being issued might be bid up to unrealistic levels. personally, any gains made on this issue should be cashed out early, as I don't expect 3DFX to maintain it's current lead in the affordable 3D rendering market for more than a year, as Intels new Graphic standards, Unified memory bus, and more utilization of the MMX instruction set is seen. SEGA signing on would be a shot in the arm short term, but most in the industry will tell you that with the advent of cheaper PC's, the Internet, and excellent CDROM based titles, affordable larger screens, etc. the TV console market game box's hayday is long gone, especially now that software variety is so pathetic, being either a fighting, driving, or sports game, hardly the variety now available on the higher resolution, more input options, and updatable, expandable software found on the PC platform. The trend in ALL hot PC games will be Internet multiplay availability, something console games will have difficulty matching. Keep in mind that 3DFX's strength is NOT the technology in their chips, rather, it is the software development tools, and esially accessable instruction sets, that have helped get the software support penetration it enjoys currently. Other players have learned this lesson the hard way, and will not ignore the needs of fast product development game producers needs again. I used to be a big trader of SIII, CRUS, TSNG, until I realized that profitable product cycles in this industry are too short lived to be treated as much more than a trading stocks. Anyone investing long term in this industry, even SIII , is in for a rude awakening by next year.
Once the dust settles on this issue, Take your money, and run. |
