$350 Billion internet E-Commerce per annum. ABTL up in deluge, NVDC a bargain, seems AWEB is coming around. New car model fever is setting into the summer, and should blaze the trail for these publicly traded stocks, especially once the private competition can not efficiently advertise in an inflationary market (Hard Copy/TV Ads are first to get cut from budgets) and can not efficiently raise capital to capture a permanent market share from the public investment market. It may take more cash, more secondary offerings or spin offs for these companies to kick the established dealership "Old Boys Network" OBN and the manufacturers into "well defined" internet car territories and thereby freezing market share.
WHY? Because every state in the USA erquires you to still have a bick and mortar dealership for the delivery of cars, its illegal to deal in cars without that brick and mortar there. There are even rules on the size of the office, in the dealership to the size of the show room or repair garage size etc. (Can't just have a fly y night start selling cars in a deserted parking lot, and that stems in part from old interstate stolen car rings, to other similar problems). [This is why I think the wwwcardirect model of Mike Dell is dead, and won't last.]
These are the two efficiencies that I see NVDC, ABTL, AWEB to have over all other competition: Efficiency in Internet Advertising, and Efficiency in Access to Public Capital Markets. It will take money to make money. It will take good P.R. to get customers, and that means "WEB CAMPAIGNS" not your usual spam, but web incentives etc, and that in turn also will create ready, willing, able and eager dealerships signing up and being locked up by these three players.
As such ABTL did better than market, AWEB awakes, and NVDC is a bargain. Lets see the earnings, and see if there is any 'sympathy' between these three, have they established a 'sub'-industry in their area of online automobile purchasing (E-Cars E-Commerce) or will lack of earnings sympathy (on stock prices betwen the three) show that this area is wide open, and the wild wild west, waiting for more gun slingers to come to town to shoot it out for the market share that is there.
It seems that ABTL is positioning for a bad economy where used cars will be king, and thus their used car link on YHOO, whereas, if financing is the issue of competive interest rates, or capital markets dry up, NVDC seems well positioned with its $1 Billion loan deal for its customers with First Union and Westar. AWEB seems poised to pick the middle of these two kinds of markets, between NVDC's financing of new cars and ABTL strength in used cars for cash.
I am,
Truly yours,
-Crystal ball |
