Deja Vu, Syria
Guardian blog
So... here we are again, at the same familiar crossroads.
Once again, we face a fascist dictator in the Middle East known to support terror, manufacture weapons of mass destruction and trample on the civil rights of his people. Once again, the United Nations has wasted years and lives issuing demands with which that dictator has no intention of complying, and which the UN seems to have no intention of enforcing. We've been here before. Only the names and the countries have changed.
This time, Syrian dictator Bashar Assad makes the choice to become our enemy. You would think he'd have learned the magnitude of such a mistake after watching what happened to the last one who chose that path. It's still possible that Assad will follow instead the lead of Libya's Moammar Ghaddafi, and surrender to the inevitable before it leads to his removal from power. "I will do whatever the Americans want," Ghaddafi told Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, "because I saw what happened in Iraq, and I was afraid."
If not, we may end up watching Assad emerging from a spider hole of his own before long. The choice is entirely up to him. However, the recent alliance between Syria and Iran doesn't make it seem likely that Assad will accede to the wishes of the UN. "We are ready to help Syria on all grounds to confront threats," said Iranian Vice-President Mohammad Reza Aref. Iran is on shaky ground itself, having repeatedly defied UN and US demands that they cease working on their nuclear program.
Since the 1970's, Syria has occupied Lebanon, originally to repel Israeli troops. The Israelis sent troops in 1978 to destroy terrorist bases in Lebanon, but withdrew after two months. Terrorists flooded right back into Lebanon. In 1982, in response to hundreds of terrorist attacks on Israel from terror groups based in Syria-controlled Lebanon, the Israel Defense Force again invaded, and withdrew to a narrow "security zone" in 1985. The 1989 Taif Accords were supposed to outline a one-year plan for returning sovereignty of Lebanon to the Lebanese people, and allowed Syrian forces to provide security while the transition of power took place. That transition, of course, never did happen. Rather than insist, the UN Security Council simply kept moving the deadline. Finally, all Israeli forces withdrew from Lebanon in 2000, but the Syrian forces remained. The UN extended the deadline for their withdrawal yet again. In September 2004, the UNSC passed resolution 1559, which called for "all remaining foreign forces to withdraw from Lebanon." Syria still has approximately 16,000 troops in Lebanon who apparently did not get the memo.
Congress passed the Syria Accountability Act in May 2003. The act noted, "Since 1990 the Senate and House of Representatives have passed seven bills and resolutions calling for the withdrawal of Syrian armed forces from Lebanon." The act also reminded us of Syria's manufacture of WMDs, oil smuggling and ties to terror. "Terrorist groups, including Hizballah, Hamas, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command, maintain offices, training camps, and other facilities on Syrian territory and operate in areas of Lebanon occupied by the Syrian armed forces and receive supplies from Iran through Syria." Unfortunately, the strong words stopped at the condemnations. As possible penalties, the act suggested such actions as restricting the travel of Syrian diplomats and reducing US diplomatic contact with Syria. Surely Assad and his Ba'athist thugs are quaking in their boots at the thought of having to eat fewer formal dinners with US diplomats. Maybe we can have the staff do a less thorough job of cleaning the silverware, too. That'll teach 'em.
The Bush administration has repeatedly warned Syria about their support for terrorists, especially those who have been killing Iraqi civilians. Despite warnings, Assad allowed fugitives from Saddam's government to find safe harbor in Syria, and even supplied Iraq with military equipment before the US-led invasion. General Ali al-Jajjawi, a former Republican Guard commander, said Saddam's deputy Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri and other high-ranking Iraqis fled to Syria just before Mosul fell in April 2003. Syria has been supporting the so-called "insurgents" in Iraq ever since.
Syria's response to all this pressure was to announce that their occupying forces will be moved around a bit without leaving Lebanon. Who said diplomatic measures don't produce results? Syrian troops will be repositioned to comply with the long-outdated Taif Accords, but not one single Syrian soldier will leave the country. Syria didn't even set a timeline for this "repositioning," and the UN didn't bother to ask for one. It looks as though Assad intends to remain in control of Lebanon, in defiance of the UN and the US. After decades of occupation (and why don't those who cry about the "Israeli occupation of Palestine" ever say anything about the Syrians in Lebanon?), how long will the UN just keep asking nicely?
We faced a similar situation in 1990, when Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein was ordered to give up his occupation of Kuwait. He refused, so an American-led coalition drove Iraqi troops out of Kuwait. Unfortunately, we left Saddam in power, while Iraq festered for another decade. It doesn't seem likely that President Bush will make the same mistake. If Assad forces America to act, there won't be any half-measures on our part this time.
What should we do about these terror-supporting dictators who repeatedly defy both the UN and ourselves? Should we keep waiting for incontrovertible proof of their direct involvement in terrorist attacks before acting to stop them? Life isn't an episode of CSI: Middle East. Using another country's children as bait seems a little cold-blooded, too; not doing everything we can to prevent needless innocent deaths seems just plain wrong.
The question is, if we do enforce the Security Council's latest resolution, will the other nations on the Council back us up this time... or do they have secret deals with Syria, as they did with Iraq?
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