Perhaps the next "killer ap" that helps to drive the market will be real time voice to voice and voice to text processing on low cost PC, internet devices and embedded uPs (like voice command i-surfing, microwaves and VCR/DVD programming). I think the combination of high powered uPs (300 Mhz Pentium II class) for less than $100 combined with next generation voice recognition and translation software will possibly create a whole new paradigm for computing. within a few years it probably won't matter that much if you speak French, Spanish, Japanese, Chinese, English or a number of other languages as long as you are connected to an IP phone, pocket personal assistant or other voice translation equipped device. Think about the cumulative impact of universal internet communications, traditional type and wireless phone service and the lower cost + higher performance computing devices on commerce, travel and recreation, and other aspects of the world economy and social structure. Enormous implications.
From what I've heard and read, a Pentium II 300 class uP is expected to be very adequate to do fluid voice conversion running the next generation of programs. IDTI, AMD, Cyrix and maybe even Intel plan to have low cost parts at the time that Kurswell, Dragon systems, IBM and others plan to come out with the more capable programs - starting by the middle of next year. Maybe things won't happen that quickly and it will take yet another revision of software and even lower cost points on the (now) high performance hardware than will then be available, but the outlook is that it will likely happen soon.
I have often wondered about the unexplained ability of the characters on Star Trek NG, Voyager, and Deep Space 9 to talk with people from distant galaxies that they have never met in plain ol' English. Kinda funny that all of infinity has grown to accept a common language? Maybe what has become UNIVERSAL rather than a common language is the technological capability to understand and convert the language between the various strange, imaginary creatures (maybe lawyers and politicians fit into that category). Could it be that the "com badges" these cultural voyagers are wearing might just have some future generation of the WinChip embedded inside?
In the broader perspective, the "computing revolution" is now evolving into the "communications revolution" as was theorized by techno-futurists decades ago (I wrote a minor research paper on the subject in MBA grad school some 15 years ago). The powerful impact on the world's socio-economic formation is only just beginning. To think now, "PCs are slowing down, how will we survive this?" is faulty when considering longer term investments. Ten, twenty, fifty years down the road I am sure of one thing, we will look back on current PCs and electronic devices of all types as being a minor industry compared to what it becomes.
Maybe this is something that IDTI could tackle with IBM - specialized instruction extensions and systems archiecture to more efficiently do vocie conversions and manipulation while still being legacy x86 compatible. This would be a broad vision of computing/communications that should be attractive to the forward thinking people among IBM and would be a rewarding area for IDTI to participate in if sponsored by IBM. I don't know if IBM has the vision or wisdom to capitalize on it. |
