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To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (80249)	12/17/1999 4:24:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	of 86076

Mohan, once a recession hits, and i have absolutely no doubt that the business cycle has NOT been repealed, many banks and credit card co's are going to be in deep kimshee...at current levels of household indebtedness, a rise in the jobless rate and a decline in asset values could imperil earnings for years to come, which is essentially what happened in Japan. Bill Gross said today he expects at least two more Fed hikes next year and sees the long bond hitting 6,75% unless stocks back off. imo, the Fed has created a completely untenable situation. imo the liquidity splurge will result in a cyclical flare-up in inflation that will force them into tightening, and that should precipitate a Japan-type deflationary spiral. however, i have no idea at all when...except that i believe we are getting closer to the moment of truth. some time next year the dam will break imo...

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