Ken -
Interesting points. I agree with you that DVD is a HOT new technology, and that it will indeed bear watching. I, for one, will grab a DVD ROM as soon as I can get one AND there are substantial software titles to go with it.
What I don't necessarily agree with is the concept that everyone will use DVD instead of Jaz in two years. Sure, the audio/video components will. But the computer market is something else. First of all, if rewritable DVD appears even as early as late '97, that will be amazing. I wouldn't realistically expect to see it until mid '98 at the earliest. How many Jaz drives will be out there by then? And remember, KE has said that they can get capacity up to 5 GB with the current design. Also has a target price of $199 for the drive.
Rewritable DVD will not compete, at first, on two grounds; speed and price. By the time RW DVD becomes more affordable, Jaz will have HUGE market share.
Obviously, I can't see the future. But I think Jaz (or its successor) will be around for a while, coexisting with the early RW DVD machines.
And Iomega doesn't seem to be a company planning to just sit still while the rest of the world catches up.
Furthermore, I don't believe that statement that "demand is slowing down." The second quarter numbers showed significant growth even though production was still ramping up for Zip. And we don't really know the third quarter numbers yet, but retail sales seem to be better than ever. The rebate wouldn't sell drives if the market were already saturated. I would also ask you to check out the Data Quest numbers for the burgeoning removable storage market. Doesn't look like we're near the saturation point yet.
You also said "But I also believe that all the big money has been made
in this stock. There are just too many shares." Say, have you noticed how many shares Microsoft has outstanding?? Sure, they're bigger. But they didn't start out that way.
Like you, Ken, I am only stating my opinion. I could be wrong on some points or all. Thank you for continuing to contribute your well-reasoned opinions as well. This is what makes this place worth the time (in my opinion.)
- Allen |
