David,
A lot of large corporations spent millions of dollars updating old programs to get around the Y2K problem. In light of this, it is really doubtful that they will soon spend millions more to rewrite these applications.
Maybe all the spending on the Y2K "solution" makes the Citrix solution all that much more attractive. For a fraction of the cost, these older apps can be "updated" for use on the web.
I unable to put together any synopsis since there are too many variables involved. A couple of points to ponder...
1) The Y2K spending will help anyone with Internet-enabling technology. Enormous amount of money was spent by IT for Y2K. Like any organization, IT folks are relunctant to give that portion of the bugdet up. Luckily, there is this strategic initiative called the Internet / E-business that companies want to spend money on and the IT folks (and consultants) are happy to spend it. This should be a positive for Citrix, depending on if the IT folks add-on to an existing product vs. rewriting it.
2) Companies that started early with Y2K upgraded many of their systems with new ones. The others patched their existing systems. Some of the people who patched their systems did intend to upgrade to non-homegrown system. However with the crisis behind us, I suspect that those plans may fall on the wayside in favor of more Internet-focused plans. I view this as a positive for Citrix.
3) Replacing internal systems with a commerical ERP system was the big trend pre-Y2K. This experience has left a lot of companies with a bad taste for ERP. One of the "hidden" stories about ERP is that you need to change your business to conform to the ERP system. Like most software packages, SAP, Oracle, BAAN, etc., all have limited flexibiity. If your business model does fit, you either change the model or risk an implementation failure. It is not in the interest of ANY ERP vendor to trumpet failure so you may not have heard about it. However, there have been a fair number. This fact become very relevant for an IT dept. I suspect many will prefer to stay with their existing system instead of risking failure. They will need to provide access to their existing system. They can use browser-based technology (JavaScript & HTML) to do this, but I suspect many will use traditional Windows RAD technologies (Visual Basic, Powerbuilder) since they have lots of people already trained with these tools. The only counter argument to this is that technical people are always looking to upgrade their skills, so IT managers are going to be underpressure to train their personnel with web-based technologies. Otherwise, they run the risk of losing their best people. Most managers will probably try and strike a balance here, mixing new web-based initiatives with traditional approaches. This should be a positive for Citrix.
4)Most older apps will require some work to use Citrix. Most of these apps run on non-Windows machines (VMS, MVS, VM, etc.) Unless a company has made an Windows-based client for these apps, Citrix will require additional work to use. If this additional work is required, then Item 3 above will come into play. For those apps that have a Windows-based client, Citrix could be a no brainer.
On the whole, I think the future is bright for Citrix. I see corporations focusing on customer portals, one-on-one marketing techniques, and integrated supply chains / vendor marts over the next few years. They will love to have a quick solution to Webify their existing apps. Depending on the apps, Citrix *might* provide that solution. They key factor is whether a Windows-based client exists.
Heeren |
