Hi kapkan4u:
The more I look at it, the more I think this $1 billion milestone just might be achieved in 99Q.
Not even halfway through 99Q4 (i.e. Nov. 11), Ben Anixer of AMD predicts that AMD revenues will be comfortably above $800 million. Since then, the GTW prospect seems assured and the 750's are coming on stream ahead of schedule. If these, amongst other unknown positive news items currently in the hopper, were not factored into the $800 million as they were unrealized at that time, "comfortably" might just turn out to mean 25% as in "25% above $800 million.
Slightly different assumptions, albeit my best case scenario, (i.e. 1.3 million Athlons @$300 ($390m)and 4.6 million non-Athlons @$70 ($325m), flash memory ($250m) and communications ($75m)) from yours still gets us through the historical $1 billion barrier to $1040m.
As previously suggested, even if the $1 billion barrier isn't smashed in 99Q4, it appears that, conservatively, $5 billion ($6 billion even!) in Y2000 revenues can be readily projected given current trends. If the communications group is sold, Y2000 breakeven could be significantly less than $5 billion (i.e $4.4 billion?)...(All of this Y2000 talk is wildly hypothetical at the moment but the overall drift is that Y2000 should provide the AMD investor with those long awaited and much too elusive positive returns as AMD price surpasses the upper boundary of the 5 year chart envelope at $63 (maybe $58, Jim)and confirms that, with the Athlon, AMD is indeed a new company and that a paradigm shift did take place the moment Dirk Meyer unveiled the K7 in June 1999. |
