Ed,
Nobody will blame on your prediction on Q1 results like Marc demostrated in his post. But, you sometimes have to face the fact -
Apple is in the black in Q1. Apple could sell sub$1000 machines to
decorate its market share in consumer quarter, but that is not its
first priority, instead, turning into profitable outcomes is its
highest task to accomplish. It is too clear to say with current
net income through '98, the PE ration will be around 15, which is the
lowest in computer hardware/software group. Apple doesn't need to
increase its share to reach Q1 results, rather as long as they could
keep their share along with PC overall increased sales (15% in '98),
they will easily reach that goal (PE=15 or less).
Does Sun Micro, HP/UX need to sell sub$1000 machines to be profitable
and prosperous? Well, they don't need to because there are still
enough users upgrading their PCs, and plenty of enterprise need
efficient and powerful machines to perform daily jobs. Rhapsody will
meet those requirements.
I personally have no objection to see Apple entering sub$1000 machines
to satisfy those who mainly focus on statistics to maintain their
jobs. What kind of margin Apple could make thru sub$1000 is another
issue you should think about if you really care about Apple's
profitability, not merely to learn from those statistics data.
Phil |
