More Yahoo posts.
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Further to Mr. Ready... his history with some of his posts on OXHP. Some of these posters seem to have raw edges of people who live in bus stations and are nervous about being thrown into the street.
Subj: Suffered enough
By: mrready
Date: Dec 12 1997 2:37 P.M PST
Reply To: Msg. 217 by nooner50
I had put options on OXHP earlier this year that expired in August unable to be exercised because of Wiggins positive comments that the computer problems were fixed and because the first and second quarter 10-Q's were totally bogus.
I currently have no position in the company.
I agree with your comments that they have missed the pricing window for a large block of business for 1998 and that would be what would concern me the most. Their MLR for 1997 is going to be over 90%. Their admin expenses are over 16% of total revenue.
With expenses over 106% of revenue I am not upbeat about a positive 1998. The company's current guidance is approximately
$1.35 per share for 1998. Analysts have them at $1.49 to $1.75
per share. (Someone correct me if there is more updated info out there). I just don't see that kind of turnaround. For 1997 the
bottom line is going to be a negative $1.60 per share.
In general I am not bullish on HMO's right now but I think that mid 1998 will be the time to get in. Shortly thereafter you should begin to hear significant noise about large premium rate increases (double digit) and the increase in the top line will
drive the bottom lines of the industry. The question is: Can OXHP limp through till then? If there current capital isn't enough, they are going to have a hard time raising more. I certainly can't picture them in the equity markets at $16 per share and their financials for 1997 may preclude much in the way of bond financing.
As to your point about reasonably competent management, I don't think that I can agree. I think that management either committed
fraud over the past six to nine months or that they were grossly incompetent to be off as much as they have been.
Sorry to say but I think you have a dog on your hands at this point. But only the future can tell. Maybe a white knight will ride in to help you out.
Subj: oxhp merger
By: mrready
Date: Jan 6 1998 6:34 A.M PST
Reply To: Msg. 491 by king_sultan
Sultan,
Apology accepted.
I've gone through the list of potential suitors, but I can't think of one that makes sense.
AET - still swallowing US Healthcare and have their own problems.
Also, already have NY license and network.
CI - still working on HS acquisition. Also, have NY license and network.
UNH - possibility. Don't know if they have anything in NY.
WLP - possibility. Would give them an East Coast presence. But can they afford OXHP even at this reduced price?
FHS - Just finished the PHSV acquisition which gives them an NY license and East Coast presence.
PHSYA - No idea on this one.
CVTY, SIE, MME, MAXI - none are big enough and some are potential targets themselves.
HUM - ??
If OXHP is going to be bought, care to speculate on a purchase price?
More of Mr Ready
Subj: bottom fishin'
By: mrready
Date: Jan 5 1998 6:40 A.M PST
Reply To: Msg. 474 by btmfshn
That is what makes America a great place. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. I don't disagree that HMOs are going to be a good investment again, I just think the bottom is still aways off.
I would like to take issue with a couple of your comments though.
You say that "HC/HMO is big business and as people get older/live longer-more care is needed." I certainly agree with the statement, but I don't think this helps HMOs in general and OXHP specifically. HMOs make money when people pay premiums and don't use services. That is why for years, HMOs cherry-picked the young, healthy part of the population. And if you are referring to Medicare, that is the business that OXHP has had the most problems with.
Do you know how S&P values stocks? Has it factored in the fourth
quarter reserve adjustments? What are they using for estimated 1998 earnings? On another board someone was asking if $.57 per share was still accurate for 1998. I don't see how OXHP goes from $2.00 in the hole in 1997 to being positive in 1998.
Still more of Mr. Ready
Subj: hmo future
By: mrready
Date: Jan 19 1998 1:36 P.M PST
Reply To: Msg. 642 by pkreilly
Too bad you can't invest in the industry, because there will be money to be made.
I'm in the industry and I only made a little money on the last run-up. I don't plan to miss the next cycle. It is still amazing to me how cyclical this industry is. If medical insurers could simply increase rates consistently from year to year rather than give giant increases for several years followed by several years of no increases or declines, we would be much better off.
What is your take on the prospects for OXHP?
Now, on to others on Yahoo.
Subj: You don't have a clue-spastic
By: boweregard
Date: Jan 15 1998 12:17 P.M PST
Reply To: Msg. 600 by HMOspastic
Oxford has the most aggressively negotiated hospital rates in the city and surrounding area- They were the first to
introduce the NY Metro to risk-and they had a great plan- the failure was in the delivery- not the rates- they negotiated from 78% MLR
and down- They are able to charge a higher premium than most of their competitors because of the extensive network they have-The
fact that they did all the leg work in setting up risk deals with providers created the need for people like you- Your HMO is a
follower-not a leader- they failed in the implementation of managing the risk and the expectation that physicians would be able to handle
it.
You should thank them for making your life a whole lot easier.
Another post
Subj: What were the anlalysts doing?
By: HMOspastic
Date: Jan 15 1998 10:20 A.M PST
Reply To: Msg. 1 by YahooFinance
This has probably been covered a thousand times, but I'm still really puzzled about all of these analysts and their complete ignorance of this company. Except for the one analyst in Atlanta, who's name I can't remember, they all loved this company.
The primary reason for my concern is that ALL of us who work the HMO industry in the NYC metro area knew that something was really wrong there.
I negotiate Hospital and Physician risk deals for a large competitor of this company. Our premiums are very similar to
Oxford...however, EVERYTIME I went into a negotiation with rates that supported our financial model, I was laughed at because, Oxford, the
market leader, was paying more. Thus, you had a situation where the market leader failed to negotiate as agressively as it should
have...not because of incompetence, but because they were in such a hurry to establish a network. The result: as a market leader, they
created an inflated managed care reimbursement "base-line". The rest of us had to follow suit or walk away from deals, even if
membership growth suffered.
Didn't these analysts, many of whom are based in NYC, not see this dynamic? Shouldn't this have caused some concern, when combined with Oxford's claims payment problems? We're talking simple math.
I'm not sure what sort of background one needs to become an "analyst"...but I would suggest that working in the field they are analyzing be a requisite. Hell, I'd make a better analyst than this group...how do you become one?
Finally, some last posts.
Subj: Hospital Contracts
By: actri
Date: Jan 15 1998 3:44 P.M PST
Reply To: Msg. 602 by boweregard
First of all risk contracts have been around for more than 30 years and every HMO has being using them, the reason they were not in NY for hospitalization was that NY had a DRG system.
<<they negotiated from 78% MLR>>
I have never heard of anyone negotiating from a MLR, this makes NO sense at all.
I know for an absolute fact that at least two large national managed care companies have "most-favored nation" clauses with their hospitals so no one has better deals.
Rumors have continually circled that Ox does not have better than average hospital deals and I have heard often that they are higher than most. Hospital inpatient cost only makes up 30% of the claim dollar, and I have seen Ox doctor fee schedules that show they have a higher (sometimes greatly) re-imbursements than their competitors.
Ask yourself how did they recruit a network that was 3 times the size of their competitors 4 years ago - THEY PAY MORE! The competitors have had to adjust their re-imbursements to attract doctors but now many have a network within 20% the size.
And next to... lastly,
Subj: Wrong.
By: HMOspastic
Date: Jan 15 1998 1:35 P.M PST
Reply To: Msg. 602 by boweregard
First of all,you don't know where I work...but suffice it to say that my employer is one hell of a lot bigger than oxhp...and a lot more profitable.
Their MLR...what good is that number? They don't even know what costs their member's are incurring.
My employer has been doing risk deals before oxford was even born. The sad fact is...the NYC market is not ready for risk.
Every provider wants to do it, because they envision all this imaginary $$ . Problem is...they're practicing medicine like it's
still a big blue cross indemnity land...churn, churn churn...look at Oxford's disastrous POD experience...they ended up with
physicians owing them millions...the plan was so flawed that even oxford couldn't get the doctors to pay back. They negotiated deals
with phsycians based on the price of premium...not actual medical experience like they should have. They were probably too busy
hanging billboards instead of rebooting the lone PC they dedicated to claims payment to even determine what there medical costs
were. Gee, that's a real ingenious method. Our risk model? Pre-dates Oxfords, and eliminates 95% of the physician's downside risk,
through the use of sliding fee schedule. Gosh...your mentors at Oxford would have had to really have had to get their hands dirty
with actual number crunching to operationalize a system like that...taking away valuable time from the stock certificate printing
press, I guess.
Oxford Medicare per diems? They're higher than ours. You try walking into a hospital with a sane per diem proposal, only to be told that Oxford, "who must know everything because wall street loves them" is paying 30% more.
Anyway...I wasn't bashing oxford in my previous post, but instead the analysts who failed to see the obvious. There are things about the company that I admire. They are ingenious at creating benefit & marketing plans. The people that I know there are incredibly bright and hard working.
But make no mistake, I don't owe Oxford anything.
Lastly.... a positive statement about OXHP. God how I've looked!
Subj: We are Family
By: Fnbarry
Date: Dec 12 1997 9:05 P.M PST
Reply To: Msg. 227 by Ponzimaster
So many of these posts are cruel and unjust. I cannot sit back and read such vicious things about a man that cares so much about his employees and the company he created. It has been a long and difficult road to travel but he guided this great company
to heights that were thought un thinkable. We remain in good spirits at Oxford and are trying our best to move ahead. There have been and will be serious changes made to the records we keep. Hopefully this period will end soon and we can take our vision to new markets.
Please bare with (us) and be patient. |
