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Strategies & Market Trends : Guidance and Visibility

AAPL 271.70

+0.7%

2:24 PM EDT

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To: 2MAR$ who started this subject	11/10/2002 4:18:46 AM
From: SirRealist	of 208838

The USD now reaches a final juncture in its effort to sustain above the July low. It's already broken all trends developed in the last 4 months and is at the cusp of breaking one that extends back to the second qtr of 1995. However, contrary to its recent closely aligned interaction with market direction, a lowering of the dollar was something the Fed was trying to instigate with its rate cut. A lowered dollar is one way a deflationary cycle might be warded off. If it stays above 103.80 this week, there's a slim chance it could rise to 110 again, but no further. Once 103.80 is broken, though, a fairly steady decline to 100 or 97 would not be terribly surprising, within this qtr. and possibly this month. Whether it provides a nearterm bullish or bearish market here is unclear. The early signs are bearish, but the longterm implications are not. To me, it just increases the likelihood of a very volatile week if that 103.80 point breaks.

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