SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 314.52-0.6%Dec 11 4:00 PM EST
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (81288)10/1/2018 9:44:10 PM
From: Elroy1 Recommendation

Recommended By
Donald Wennerstrom

   of 95572
 
This action is really "dumb".

We will know how "dumb" the action is in about 3-4 more quarters.

No one ever predicts the decline accurately.

Maybe NAND pricing is really going to hell. Maybe NAND ASPs are going to decline 80% over the next year, and all the NAND makers WILL go EPS negative.

Maybe not.

The problem for these stocks is that the professional big money guys who have been investing in semi capital equipment and memory over the past 20-30 years have all done well (or poorly) by predicting turns in the cycle. The cycles seems to have peaked about Q4 2017/Q1 2018, and now we're on the way down. How far and how fast down? Whoever knows the answer makes the most money.

Whoever calls the trough of the cycle is the "Investor King". It is only ~9 months from the last peak. 6-9 months is perhaps too shot to call the trough.

But maybe the trough is RIGHT NOW and all the investors buying RIGHT NOW are going to make a ton of money next year.

Or maybe the trough is Q4 2020,and all the investors selling and going short RIGHT NOW are going to make a ton of money next year.

Wait and see.....

---

I don't follow DRAM at all. But for all you bulls, is there any concern that the recent "peak" up cycle was so so so good and so so so positive that perhaps the negative down cycles that follows it will be exceptionally awful? That would be the concern for me. There are still six NAND makers, surely they ALL over invested during the recent up cycle. No?
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News