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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 306.28-1.0%Dec 4 4:00 PM EST
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To: Return to Sender who wrote (81348)10/9/2018 1:01:52 AM
From: Donald Wennerstrom1 Recommendation

Recommended By
Return to Sender

   of 95525
 
RtS, I partially agree with your statement,
P/E ratios are only good for measuring relative valuations. They do not predict the future.

You are right, PEs do not predict the future. PE ratios are produced to document previous actual performance while forward PEs are produced by consensus of analysts future earnings estimates. At any present point in time these future earnings estimates often change, sometimes quite rapidly.

The future is unknown. It is always a c**pshoot. If the outlook for the future is deemed to look "bad", and the emotional opinions of the analysts buy that scenario, earnings estimates will be decreased(The market may, or may not, respond to their opinion). We have seen some of that this previous week when earnings estimates at the bottom line for the SOXM were in the red.

A lot of economic factors at the moment are looking "OK to good". How long that will last, who knows"?

As you stated,
What can I tell you? The newsletter writers in the Investors Intelligence Poll are really only useful for helping to nail down a market bottom. This is not a market bottom.

Even though market breadth is awful the major indexes recently all hit new highs.

That is a warning. Not an all clear sign in my humble opinion.
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