Carlos & I2: Like I said in a previous post to Mohan, I think there may be the perception of some (your discussion just served to raise it in my mind -- I doubt you meant to imply it) that BB is merely staying bullish, riding the general tendency of the market to go up over time, and that he will cut and run if and when the next bear comes, especially if he misses the call.
I remember distinctly in May of this year, on a Sunday in the third hour of the program, a caller gave him the usual deserved compliments on his market calls and inquired as to whether he will be ever wrong. Bob said that he does the best he can with his model and then said something that put things in perspective for me. He said, and these are his exact words as marked by quotes: "There is nothing I would rather do in the world" than to call the next bear market and have those who are interested in following my advice to take action to protect themselves. I think he was serious and sincere in tone when he made that comment. I think he would love to call the next bear market (as also indicated earlier this year by his entertainment of bearish hypotheticals on the show to the point of being misunderstood by many to be bearish along with his naming of a short fund in his newsletter) but will follow his model without emotion.
I will go on to speculate that perhaps he wants to be an offensive and defensive all-star to ensure his entrance to the investor's hall of fame. Pehaps he does not want to be remembered by people as never having won (or called) the big one. Don't get me wrong -- put him there in the hall of fame today. I don't care what anybody says, it is not easy to stay fully invested and capitalize on bull market dips. If one listened to CNBC somedays during the corrections of past, who wasn't ready to reach for the Prozac and start construction on the bomb shelter of their dreams.
My favorite caller has always been the post-correction, now-we-are-at-all-time-highs, caller. You know the one: "Bob, I am 100% in cash ... and have been since being shaken out by da' bears in 1990, should I lump sum it in now or wait for the next correction at which point I will put my head in the sand again?" If it was so easy to stay fully invested, then all managers would be beating the pants off the index. Whether Bob remains on the radio or not, I think, is another question.(I would love to see his face when he gets a call like that -- as a matter of fact, I would pay to see it!)
But Carlos has a good point too. Why not enjoy the critical mass and move on? I believe strongly that he is wrestling with this issue on a daily basis. In the grander scheme of things, I don't think this is such a terrible problem to have. |
