The "Detroit News" poll is nuts. 10 point swing in one week this late?
Battlegrounders
MICHIGAN: SCHEDULE HERE [Henry Payne 10/28 02:55 PM]
Thirty-thousand Bush supporters - and many more that were turned away - flocked to the Pontiac Silverdome Wednesday night to welcome President Bush. The record crowds choked roads outside the stadium north of Detroit as Bush hammered his Michigan theme of national security inside.
The rally's enthusiasm was tempered Thursday morning, however, by the latest Detroit News polling giving John Kerry a five-point lead over the incumbent, 47-42 percent. The numbers amount to a10-point swing to Kerry since last week when the same poll put Bush ahead for the first time, 47-42.
Bush moves north to Saginaw today and then returns to conservative Grand Rapids this Saturday as tries to rev up his Michigan base for next Tuesday
PENNSYLVANIA: ORGANIZATION [Kathryn Jean Lopez 10/28 02:52 PM]
Maybe I am being spun bigtime in some coordinated campaign, but I don't think so. The coordinated message alone would take work. Everyone, everyone, everyone. One the ground, in the RNC, etc., is telling me: "we're organized like you would never believe." Here's an e-mail, which I post, again, because it is what I am hearing again and again:
I attended a Republican Poll Watcher training session last night in Pittsburgh and was surprised to find out just how organized thorough the effort is on the Republican side. Hundreds of Republican watchers will be present in precincts that voted over 60% for Gore in 2000. Lawyers will be present throughout the day and will also be available by phone to answer questions and provide assistance where needed. The focus of the Watchers is on observation and record keeping. Primarily, the major influence of the Poll Watchers will be to deter fraud by being there. Importantly, we will also have listing of names that should not be voting (i.e., people who have moved or died). Although I am skeptical as to how much fraud we can prevent given determined and creative felons, I am hopeful nonetheless that we will make it much more difficult on them.
ARKANSAS: THEY’RE BACK [David J. Sanders 10/28 01:31 PM]
Recent poll results in Arkansas, which show the race tied or within the margin of error, have led Democratic-friendly groups back to The Natural State.
The Stephens Media Group’s Arkansas News Bureau details the $200,000 media buy purchased by the Move On Political Action Committee and the Win Back Respect PAC in the Little Rock media market.
State Republicans have a scheduled news conference this afternoon to announce a $45,000 new radio ad campaign. The ads will feature Gov. Mike Huckabee, Lt. Gov. Win Rockefeller and Deena Burnett, widow of Tom Burnett a passenger on American Flight 93.
Huckabee’s ad will touch on former-President Bill Clinton’s scheduled Sunday return to Arkansas to campaign for the Democratic ticket.
As of now, it isn’t known if the GOP will match the Democrats on the television airwaves. Alarm bells are not sounding: The Bush team says their internal polls show them up eight points over Kerry.
IOWA: THE Q WORD [David Hogberg 10/28 11:48 AM]
On Tuesday evening, I spoke with a person who is with the Bush Campaign in Iowa. This person wants to remain anonymous, so I will dub this person “Q.” Q confirmed that there is a ton of enthusiasm for Bush in Iowa. “There were 8,000 people at the Bush rally in Council Bluffs on Tuesday,” Q said. “The excitement continued even after the President left.”
Q also stated that social conservatives are firmly behind Bush. “We’ve had a lot of breakfast with such groups in places like the Quad Cities. We’ve also done a lot of Christian radio in the state. They are even responding not only to traditional social issues, but also to the President’s position on health care. Christians, this year, seem quite concerned about that issue.”
It was difficult to gauge how this campaign compared to previous ones, as this is Q’s first campaign in Iowa. However, Q did state that “the ground game is much more sophisticated than before.” Q’s descriptions sounded somewhat similar to Ohio.
When pressed on how Q thought the race was going in Iowa, Q seemed to give pat answers. What struck me was that Q kept emphasizing how close it was going to be, especially in Iowa. “We may not know until midnight at the soonest,” Q said. It’s hard to see that as anything other than the proper attitude. If the Bush folks really believe it is going to be close, there will be no slacking, no over-confidence going into the final days, unlike 2000.
That may be some of the best news yet.
SCHILLING [Kathryn Jean Lopez 10/28 11:43 AM]
Word is the president spoke to him this morning. He'll probably be in Pa. with New Hampshire this weekend, is my informed guess. |
