OH Poll: Democrats Gain As Independents Return
Posted by Mike Memoli | Email This | Permalink | Email Author
Quinnipiac's latest survey in Ohio (1,526 RVs, 3/23-29, MoE +/- 2.5%) finds what the pollster calls a "mini-surge" for Democrats, as the party now has taken leads in both the Senate and gubernatorial races this fall.
Senate General Election Matchups
Fisher 41 (+4 vs. last poll, 2/16-21)
Portman 37 (-3)
Und 21 (unch)
Brunner 38 (+3)
Portman 37 (-3)
Und 23 (unch)
In the gubernatorial race, incumbent Democrat Ted Strickland maintains a five-point lead over John Kasich, but he's still well under the 50 percent threshold where incumbents would want to be.
Gubernatorial General Election Matchup
Strickland 43 (-1 vs. last poll)
Kasich 38 (-1)
Und 17 (+2)
The movement in the Senate race seems to be attributable to a modest uptick for Democrats among Independent voters. They lean toward Portman, but the gap has narrowed this month. Portman leads Fisher 41-31 among indies, down from a 39-27 gap in February; he leads Brunner 38-31, down from a 40-28 spread last month.
President Obama's job rating has also improved, with 47 percent of Ohioans approving and 48 percent disapproving. The split was 44/52 in February. He also benefits from movement among independents, with a net approval rating shift from -19 to -14. Ohioans are also moving on the health reform law, with a 7 point jump bringing overall support to 43 percent; opposition drops from 55 to 50 percent. Quinnipiac also finds this:
Obama is a better President than George W. Bush, voters say 45 - 32 percent. Even independents, who have been a particular political problem for Obama in recent months, say he has been better than Bush 35 - 31 percent.
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