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Technology Stocks : Oracle Corporation (ORCL)

ORCL 221.64

+0.5%

Dec 9 3:59 PM EST

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To: LarryX-Man who wrote (8193)	9/10/1998 8:29:00 AM
From: RDH	Read Replies (1) of 19080

I guess today is the moment of truth. I really don't think Ellison would have made the statements that he made recently about this quarter unless he expected to match or beat estimates. If estimates are matched for the next four quarters and Oracle stays at the current price, we will have it at a P/E of around 17 or 18. I would think it more likely for Oracle to at least maintain its current P/E and if this happens we will see a nice rise up over these next four quarters. If we see exceeding of earning estimates and the pursuing adjustments of estimates by the analysts, we may see a P/E in the high thirties again, which would give us a double in one year. If ORCL disappoints this quarter, we will probably see a significant drop, the size and length of it depending on the nature of the disappointment and the status of following quarters. Today may be the last day to pick up this bargain or it may not. But when you compare it with other large well managed companies, the P/E compared to growth looks reasonable. The database group is currently out of favor, and that is maybe the best reason of all to consider purchasing shares in the leader of the industry. I think the weaker dollar may benefit Oracle against SAP slightly as well as help Oracle with European sales. If Mr. Greenspan does the sensible thing, and lowers rates, this should benefit Oracle and the Asian and Latin American economies, providing another possible plus for Oracle. - RDH.

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