Wolfowitz Hints at Support for Political Action by Turkish Military
May 07, 2003
stratfor.biz
Summary
U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz has criticized the Turkish military for not taking a "strong leadership role" in U.S.-Turkish relations. Wolfowitz's comments come amid escalating tension between Turkey's Islamist government and the country's avowedly secular military, and can only be interpreted as giving tacit U.S. support to decisive action by the military.
Analysis
In an interview broadcast May 6 on CNN-Turk, U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz criticized the Turkish military, lamenting that "for whatever reason, they did not play the strong leadership role and attitude that we would have expected" before and during the U.S.-led war on Iraq. The Turkish military reportedly was involved in negotiations toward a U.S. troop deployment in Turkey prior to the launch of Operation Iraqi Freedom, but the Islamist-dominated Turkish Parliament rejected the deal.
Wolfowitz said that, in the end, Turkey likely was hurt worse than the United States by Ankara's decision to reject U.S. troop deployments. Turkey's decision caused Washington to withdraw its offer of a $6 billion grant, convertible to $24 billion in long-term, low-interest loans, which could have helped refinance Turkey's $145 billion state debt. Turkey is also on the sidelines as the United States shapes the future of Kurdish-dominated northern Iraq and selects companies to receive lucrative reconstruction contracts in Iraq.
Wolfowitz said Turkey could mend its relations with the United States by cooperating, not only on the reconstruction of Iraq, but also on still unresolved disputes with Iran and Syria.
Wolfowitz's comments come amid escalating tension between Turkey's Islamist government and the country's avowedly secular military. Turkey's National Security Council (MGK) last week reiterated the fundamental role of secularism in the Turkish state and the need to protect it. Given that the military has intervened four times since 1960 to defend secular Turkey against would-be Islamist regimes, the MGK's statement was not to be taken lightly. Nor, in this context, were Wolfowitz's comments.
Unless Wolfowitz was speaking off the cuff -- which is unlikely given the importance of Turkey to U.S. foreign policy and the known impact of his comments in the region -- it sounds like Washington just gave tacit approval to the Turkish military's confrontation with the Turkish government. It is unclear to what degree this will embolden the military or daunt the Turkish government. Both have a domestic constituency to worry about before considering U.S. sanctions. But we expect the struggle in Ankara to become much more acute, now that Washington has made its position known. |
