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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 314.52

-0.6%

Dec 11 4:00 PM EST

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To: Sam who wrote (82404)

1/25/2019 10:01:49 AM

From: Elroy

of 95572

Seagate is up over 7% too, so I suppose Mr. Market has upgraded its view of the HD business?
Maybe Seagate is up because the news that WDC is closing it's Malaysian facory sooner rather than later is good news for Seagate. Don't really know, don't follow disk drives that much.
But EVERYTHING says the price of NAND is going down, strongly, for a while.
Maybe for the entire year of 2019.
How that translates into buy a NAND maker, I don't know. I would figure buyers would appear when the last negative shoe has dropped. What's the indicator that this is as bad as it gets? I don't know.
I would worry that WDC's NAND business is going to get so bad that they will have to cut the dividend to zero, close the controller division, dump their inventory below cost, and THEN, we buy because blood is in the streets.
And then Samsung announces a 100% capacity expansion, to drive WDC out of business.
Isn't THAT how this industry is supposed to work? $450m in free cash flow is not blood in the streets, it's a pretty damn STRONG result.

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