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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Think4Yourself who wrote (82575)12/24/2000 11:10:57 PM
From: Douglas V. Fant   of 95453
 
JQP, I think that that's a good investment strategy. We know that with the opening of the Alliance Pipeline into the Chicago area, that an additional 1bcf/day of NG can be pushed out of western Canadian oil & gas fields.

My guess is that the Alliance Pipeline is not full, and that with production rates at 100% the opening of the Alliance Pipeline is cannibalizing NG transportation for the two pipelines that head south into California.

The reason I think this is that three weeks ago when the Alliance Pipeline opened- gas moving into Chicago from the Alliance Pipeline should have displaced NG coming on pipelines from Oklahoma and Texas to the south to serve the Chicago market.

Therefore, Texas and Olahoma NG prices should have dipped. They didn't. In fact they rose even after the new pipleine opened. That suggests to me that Alliance's opening did not bring new supplies of Canadian NG to the US markets...

Now the Aliance Pipeline is great news for the Chicago area, but note- the laterals that should extend from Chicago eastward all over the Midwest have not yet been built.

And now if you extrapolate this scenario forward into Summer 2001 and consider the gas-to-power market, then there are a couple of option/futures plays that might work here too....
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