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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI)
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To: Dakota Sullivan who wrote (8257)11/5/1997 11:43:00 AM
From: Darryl Olson  Read Replies (1) of 25960
 
Dakota - good point regarding tax loss selling. I was trying to rationalize the impact of this. Most institutions attempt to wrap-up the tax consequences during late Oct through late Nov. With markets still positive overall for the year, my gut tells me there may be some tax-related selling this month (probably selling into strength as you noted). Individual investors might carry the tax loss selling into later December. However, there is a gamble here - I believe the "factual" word (fundamentals) about Cymer is beginning to take hold. The 30-day tax preclusion from re-purchasing a stock presents the gamble - when should I sell (for tax reasons) if I intend to re-purchase??

I further think that any potential buyers coming out of the conference this week are probably in-tune to this and will attempt to buy limited amounts in order not to drive the price up too quickly while they establish their positions. In my estimation, this will all come to a head in late Dec or early Jan. Added to this will be "whisper" 4th qtr numbers. If nothing negative comes out from the stepper manufacturers during the next two months, Late Dec / Early Jan will bode very well for Cymer.

Another side note - I received the most recent info on all of Fidelity's select funds. None of the tech-related funds own Cymer although they all own ASM Litho. I fully expect (my opinion) that these funds will be holding Cymer after Q1 '98. Some of these funds single issue holdings are in the $30-$60 million range. When the word finally gets out, we will be a momentum play again.
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