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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts
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To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (82714)11/9/2023 9:30:24 AM
From: Sun Tzu   of 97415
 
It may surprise you, but I have always welcomed people pointing out how I am wrong. The problem with you is twofold: (1) you attack me as a person rather than what I say. (2) You don't even understand what it is that I say.

I just did a search on what I called toppy and picked a recent example: Message 34408378

Cat was long QQQ but I thought it was toppy. Which one of us was right? We both were. NDX went up for the next 2 days, but it went up very little. The up amount was within my margin of error, but for a day trader it probably was fairly good. Then NDX started to fall and for a swing trader it was a pretty substantial gain. And the whole thing happened perfectly within my redline/greenline framework.

You think you know what trend is. But you don't. The market is driven by two forces: momentum and mean reversion. I've been watching what you post. You frequently get the pivot points wrong because you are focused on the wrong side.

When I say follow the trend, it doesn't mean stick with the old trend until it pokes you in the eye. It means follow the trend until the stock makes an out of character move relative to the trend. And those out of character moves are especially important near the red/green lines.

Furthermore, the timeframe is the most important decision you make. I've already told you that most of the times my bar size is between 30 minutes and 4 hrs, usually closer to 4 than 30. But you go on looking at daily regression channels and wondering why I am not confirming your biases.

Here's how it played out and also my last attempt at making you understand. After this, you are on your own.

The vertical lines begin when I first said publicly said the market was toppy. But my actual sell signal was 2 days before. This is very clear if you pay attention to the indicators in the bottom and put it within the red/green line context. The bounce back never took out the high from 2 days before. And from where I stand, it may or may not have happened. The key was that the stoploss was never taken out. The subsequent vertical bars mark where the next buy/sell/buy signals happened.

You can try to understand or you can keep tilting at the windmills. I don't care.

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