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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting
QCOM 174.73-0.3%11:24 AM EST
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To: Jim Mullens who wrote (82738)1/22/2009 2:22:58 PM
From: engineer3 Recommendations   of 196867
 
PHS is being phased out, but the same economic flow down will always happen with telecom.

In the early days of US CDMA, as they replaced analog wiht cdma, the old analog equipment got sold for pennies on the dollar to MOM and POP carriers all over the US. It was not until last year that analog finally died. I have friends who had been making alot of money swaping out AMPS for CDMA and GSM all over the US for 2005-2008.

So the same will happen in china. Eihter the poorest villages will buy up the PHS stuff and reuse it OR they will sell it to the next developing nation to reuse, perhaps African nations. It is a very cheap system to deploy. but the use case and the revenue in the face of newer higher density systems does not hold up. but if it takes 10 years for them to phase it out, there is still alot of uses. In places where there is NO wireless, a 64k bps data PHS card is wonderful. And a PHS phone that works and can be mobile is a step forward.

But this whole China thing needs some examination.

For instance, the GSM crowd is seriously looking at upgrading hte mom and pop GSM stuff in developing nations with a Wimax overlay since the cell raduis is about the same. Alot cheaper than using 3G.

The bottom line is wireless and broadband and data is going to grow by alot faster than the GDP of alot of nations for the next 20 years.
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