Market Bellwethers and the Share Game (CY 2008 preliminary)...
uhavenoidea,
<< i don't understand the interest in what nok does? nok's really not a market indicator for qcom except maybe as nok continually losees mkt share; as they will. >>
Without the intense interest in Nokia prevalent here, dedicated virtual holy warriors would be unable to get their virtual rocks off, and Broadcom is simply too minor a competitive threat or litigation adversary to completely satisfy that urge. <ggg>
While Nokia is not a direct competitor of Qualcomm (except perhaps in the nascent arena of software and data services), and in fact is a user (CDMA2000) of, and primary prospect for 3G/3.5G UMTS and multi-mode LTE Qualcomm wireless ICs which bears on Qualcomm's future revenue and earnings potential... they (and Ericsson who directly competes with Qualcomm in the IC segment) are bellwethers of the industry that Qualcomm participates in.
As such they both serve as leading indicators of future mobile wireless trends to a greater degree than any other companies that participate in the $250+ billion mobile wireless industry that segments into five distinct arenas -- mobile devices (subscriber equipment), infrastructure, components (including wireless ICs and memory), and software and services. They both serve as greatly expanded eyes and ears for the financial industry and research agencies that monitor the industry and significantly influence market reaction.
As horrendous as they may have been, Nokia's and Ericsson's recent earnings reports were, on balance, far more positive than any Tier One competitor. The sector sucks, and unfortunately that will likely keep QCOM both range bound and volatile until sector sentiment improves dramatically.
As for Nokia share losses ... Strategy Analytics, generally considered to be the best and most reliable of the research agencies tracking sell-in and share on a quarterly and annual basis, shows Nokia sell-in and market share in handsets up for the 4th consecutive year since they suffered their major share hit in H1 2004 and their annual share now stands at a new record level, a scant 2/10ths of a percentage point below the 40% target Jorma Ollila set in 2001 ...
CY2008 Global Mobile Handset Shipments and Market Share (Strategy Analytics)
Q4'07 Q4'07 CY2007 CY2007 ¦ Q4'07 Q4'07 CY2008 CY2008
Units Share Units Share ¦ Units Share Units Share
====== ====== ======= ====== ¦ ====== ====== ======= ======
Nokia 133.5m 40.6% 437.1m 38.9% ¦ 113.1m 38.4% 468.4m 39.8%
Samsung 46.3m 14.1% 161.1m 14.4% ¦ 52.8m 17.9% 196.6m 16.7%
LG 23.7m 7.2% 80.5m 7.2% ¦ 25.7m 8.7% 100.8m 8.6%
Motorola 40.9m 12.4% 159.0m 14.2% ¦ 19.0m 6.4% 99.9m 8.5%
SEricsson 30.8m 9.4% 103.4m 9.2% ¦ 24.2m 8.2% 96.6m 8.2%
Others 53.9m 16.4% 181.5m 16.2% ¦ 59.8m 20.3% 215.8m 18.3%
------ ------ ------- ----- ¦ ------ ------ ------- ------
Total 329.1m 100.0% 1122.6m 100.0% ¦ 294.6m 100.0% 1178.1m 100.0%
Growth YoY +12.3% +12.0% -10.5% +4.9%
2008 Mobile Handset Market Share and Sell-In Winners and Losers (Strategy Analytics)
CY2007 CY2007 ¦ CY2008 CY2008 ¦ 2008 Gain or Loss
Units Share ¦ Units Share ¦ Units Share
====== ====== ¦ ====== ====== ¦ ======= =========
Nokia 437.1m 38.9% ¦ 468.4m 39.8% ¦ +31.3m +0.9 ppt.
Samsung 161.1m 14.4% ¦ 196.6m 16.7% ¦ +35.5m +2.3 ppt.
LG 80.5m 7.2% ¦ 100.8m 8.6% ¦ +20.3m +1.4 ppt.
Motorola 159.0m 14.2% ¦ 99.9m 8.5% ¦ -59.1m -5.7 ppt
SEricsson 103.4m 9.2% ¦ 96.6m 8.2% ¦ -06.8m -1.0 ppt.
Others¹ 181.5m 16.2% ¦ 215.8m 18.3% ¦ +34.3m +2.3 ppt.
------ ------ ¦ ------- ------ ¦
Total 1122.6m 100.0% ¦ 1178.1m 100.0% ¦
Growth YoY +12.0% ¦ +4.9% ¦
·
¹ Up and Coming 2nd Tier Winners include: #6 RIM, #7 Apple, and HTC
au.sys-con.com
Nokia remains #1 in UMTS (WCDMA/HSPA) handsets sales and share, and in smartphones where they have been significantly challenged, and in each case their 2008 global share is very close to their overall share cited above by SA, and in each case their share is also at least 2x their next nearest competitor: Samsung in UMTS handsets, and RIM in smartphones, and that share counts in an industry where share and deep R&D pockets really matter.
That's quite enough of Nokia who appears to me to be better positioned than any competitor to gain share once again in 2009, and hopefully recover some share value in the process ...
... but let us hope that Qualcomm reports positively which I expect them to do, issues reasonably positive forward guidance which is not real easy to do in this environment, and that its report is positively accepted by the Street. They had a good 2008, all things considered, and should be well positioned for recovery of the share value we saw momentarily after the Nokia accord in July if macrocosmics improve in H2.
Cheers,
- Eric - |
