Best of the Web Today - November 2, 2004
By JAMES TARANTO
Is This Really What He Means?
"If you believe, as I do, that America's best days are ahead of us, then join me tomorrow and change the direction of America."--John Kerry, campaigning in Milwaukee yesterday
Prepared to Lose
We've heard a lot of predictions about the outcome of the presidential election, and there's almost always an element of wishfulness in them; most Bush supporters predict a Bush victory and most Kerry supporters a Kerry win. It's unlikely that more than one side will turn out to be right, but it's mildly interesting when someone goes against type and predicts a win by the other side.
Democratic pollster Mark Mellman almost does that in The Hill, a newspaper about Congress. Actually, his conclusion is that Kerry will win--"I think I will be smiling broadly. But it has been an uphill fight"--but the emphasis is on the "uphill fight." He enumerates the reasons to expect Bush to win:
"We simply do not defeat an incumbent president in wartime."
"By historical standards," the economy is "not that bad."
Bush's approval rating, at 49%, is well above that of his father and Jimmy Carter when they lost re-election. The same is true of other polling indicators, such as "right track/wrong track" numbers and voters' sense of the economy.
"Taking all that and more into account, an expert forecasting model suggests that Bush will get 51.6 percent of the two-party vote." Of course, expert forecasting models also predicted a big Gore win in 2000, so wait and see.
Electoral Tourism
The Washington Times has an amusing piece on a delegation of "election monitors" from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, who are touring Florida and are unhappy that "their schedule of pro-Kerry and left-leaning themes has left little time for similar Republican visits":
The day started with a small airport rally for Democratic presidential nominee Sen. John Kerry, who appeared to promise a senior member of the delegation that he would commit to reforming federal election processes.
The four-member delegation . . . also listened to filmmaker Michael Moore address the League of Conservation Voters and visited a polling station in Sanford, Fla., which was the site of voting irregularities four years ago.
"I would say we are dismayed," said Bart Tommelein, a Belgian congressman, of missing a Bush campaign rally that coincided with their arrival here Saturday evening.
"We are neutral, you know, and we really should be spending more time with the other side."
Now first of all, a Belgian congressman? Isn't it unconstitutional for a Belgian to serve in Congress? But anyway, it seems part of the problem is that Republicans are too busy:
The group attempted to visit Bush headquarters in Orlando, but they were abruptly turned away by Republican Party officials who said their volunteers were "too focused on getting out the vote" to be distracted by the foreign monitors.
Sounds as though the Republicans are the ones who have their priorities straight.
Another Foreign Leader for Kerry
The New York Times reports that Iraqis are divided over the U.S. presidential race:
There are pockets of support for each candidate in Iraq, just as there are in the United States. The fortress-like Green Zone on the western shore of the Tigris River, for instance, with thousands of Iraqis who make their livelihoods working directly for the Americans, is a Bush bastion. Areas that are on the other side of the American military's guns, as in the rebel-held town of Falluja, are a different story entirely.
Sheik Khalid al-Jumaili, the chief negotiator representing the people of Falluja in talks aimed at averting an imminent American-led invasion, at first said the elections would change nothing for the town either way. But then he warmed to the topic.
"If there is the slightest possibility of a change in the policy in Iraq," he said, "then we pray to God that Kerry wins. We have suffered enough and we need a change in policies."
The Times adds that "the poor and rundown Baghdad district of Sadr City is a place where Bush-Cheney bumper stickers would be ill-advised." The Times also notes that many pro-Kerry Iraqis "seem motivated as much by a deep dislike of Mr. Bush as by affection for his challenger." Just like Americans!
Kerry's November Surprise
Reuters reports that John Kerry made some news this morning on CBS's "The Early Show": "When I turned my boat in Vietnam into an ambush," he said, "I didn't see George Bush or Dick Cheney at my side."
So now it can be told: John Kerry served in Vietnam. Will this revelation help or hurt him? Americans tend to revere military service, but on the other hand Vietnam was an unpopular war. Then again, it may not matter; possibly Kerry waited until too late in the campaign to mention his Vietnam service.
He Actually Managed to Make Up His Mind?
"Hamlet Casts First Votes of Election"--headline, FoxNews.com, Nov. 2
Then Again, Maybe Not
I. "Election a Moment of Truth, or Maybe Not"--headline, Greyhound (Loyola College, Baltimore), Nov. 2
II. "Early Signs Will Tell a Lot, or a Little"--headline, News-Leader (Springfield, Mo.), Nov. 2
III. "The Wait for the Presidential Election Is Nearly Over--Maybe"--headline, Journal-News (Dayton, Ohio), Nov. 2
IV. "Early Returns May Point to Winner--or Long Night"--headline, USA Today, Nov. 2
V. "It's Narrowly Bush, Analyst Says (but Maybe Not)"--headline, Delta Farm Press, Nov. 1
VI. "It's Almost Over (Maybe), but One Thing Is Sure: It's Been a Scream"--headline, Rocky Mountain News (Denver), Nov. 2
VII. "The Electras to Reunite, With or Without Bassist John Kerry"--headline, MTV.com, Nov. 1
What Would Stocks Do Without Experts?
"Election's Results Will Affect Stocks, Expert Says"--headline, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Nov. 1
What Would We Do Without Polling Experts?
"Polling Experts Say Process Imperfect"--headline, Standard-Times (New Bedford, Mass.), Nov. 2
Intimidating Eye-Rolling
Tom Daschle, the Senate minority leader, is in a tight race with ex-Rep. John Thune to hold his South Dakota Senate seat. Yesterday, the Associated Press reports, he went to court asking for a restraining order to prevent Republicans--and only Republicans--from acting as poll watchers on Indian reservations. (The Indian vote gave Sen. Tim Johnson his narrow margin over Thune two years ago.) Among the alleged acts of intimidation:
[Democratic poll watcher David] Jordan said that at one point, a lawyer said something loudly that could be considered intimidating and that another attorney rolled his eyes when voters signed an affidavit if they didn't have identification.
"Then, he wrote something down," Jordan said. "I think that would be intimidating."
Wow, eye-rolling. Sounds really intimidating. The Weekly Standard's Joseph Bottum, a South Dakota native who's been bearish on Thune's chances, reports that Daschle won an injunction against poll-watchers writing down voters' license-plate numbers, but apparently not against eye-rolling. Bottum now says he thinks Daschle has lost: "If every possible fraudulent vote--um, excuse me, I meant unintimidated vote--were gained on the reservations, Daschle might pick up around 2,000 more votes than he was expecting. He will lose more than that in Democratic Sioux Falls alone for this stunt."
A Murder in Holland
"Nothing is known about the motive," says Jan Peter Balkenende, prime minister of the Netherlands, about the shooting death of Theo van Gogh, a Dutch moviemaker. But if you read the Associated Press story about the killing, you discover a few possible clues:
Van Gogh had received "death threats over a movie he made criticizing the treatment of women under Islam."
The suspect is "a 26-year-old man with dual Dutch-Moroccan nationality."
"One unidentified witness who lives in the neighborhood told the Dutch national broadcaster NOS that she heard six shots and saw a man with a long beard and wearing Islamic garb concealing a gun."
A central issue in America's presidential election is whether Muslims are capable of democracy: President Bush believes they are, while John Kerry is skeptical. If Kerry is right, Europe's future is quite grim indeed.
What Ails Arafat?
The Web site 365gay.com has an intriguing speculation about Yasser Arafat's illness: Perhaps the Palestinian terror chief has AIDS:
With leukemia and other forms of cancer ruled out, the list of possible diseases is narrowing.
A low blood platelet count is a sign of a weakened immune system. In addition to cancer, the low count could be attributed to bleeding ulcers, colitis, liver disease, lupus, or HIV. It is believed that ulcers and colitis have already been ruled out.
The site notes that "for several years there have been suggestions that Arafat was bisexual." Not that there's anything wrong with that!
Not Exactly the Regular Army
"Israeli Troops in Drag Make Retaliatory Attack"--headline, Globe and Mail (Toronto), Nov. 2
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Where's Greenpeace When You Need It?
"Dolphins Pounded by Jets"--headline, Ottawa Sun, Nov. 2
Where's Bill Clinton When You Need Him?
"Little Girl Unable to Feel Pain"--headine, FoxNews.com, Nov. 2
The People vs. Larry Flynt
"American porn mogul Larry Flynt said he may decide to go into exile if George W Bush is re-elected president of the United States," reports the South African Press Association. We can only hope.
Election Fraud Hits Ohio!
The Associated Press has what reads like a cute human-interest story about politics:
Even at age 103, Esther Fobes won't be sitting out this Election Day.
The Warren, Ohio, senior citizen says she's voted in every election since women were granted that right in 1920.
She cast her first ballot for Republican candidate Warren Harding.
Actually, though, the AP has uncovered a major scandal. If Esther Forbes is 103, that means she was born in 1900 or 1901, making her 19 in 1920--when the voting age was 21. Plainly Harding stole the election. |
