Once again, from another board:
I must admit that I thought that yesterday (Tuesday the 18th), we saw the lows for this stock. It hit 30 3/4 early that day and bounced back to close at 33 1/2. I thought that the bear raid had reached its zenith with the Asensio attack and had been repulsed. How humble I feel today. The stock market will, sooner or later, humble all of us who think we understand it!
The posts on this board today have been extraordinary in their sophistication. RSR's work in reaching the company and reporting its position was first rate. Jonathan's legal scenario would be a big positive, especially if the SEC could somehow cause the shorts to disgorge their profits. I don't know if that can happen, but if it did, it would probably do wonders for the stock price. When BigKNY3 first appeared on these boards, it was obvious he
was an intelligent and knowledgable observer. He has also shown himself to be highly ethical and his convictions did cause me to take a closer look at Pfizer as a great long term investment. That is the key with Zonagen - long term. There have been a few short term predictions on these boards and I must admit, I don't know what will happen in that time frame.
I even appreciate Zebras posts. It is good to have a short who doesn't accompany his opinions with an elbow to the ribs. He wanted his question to be answered by a clinician, which I am not. But as an investor, I would ask him to explain the excellent safety profile reported by the company, even with cardiac patients. If Zebra is correct, there is only one possible explanation, which leads me to my main point.
For Asensio and the shorts to be right, Zonagen management would have to be deliberately trying to defraud the investment community. To believe this, one would also need to implicate the leading directors of this company such as Chairman Martin Sutter and Steven Blasnik. Blasnik runs the Petrus fund for Ross Perot, and someone who I completely trust has assured me that Sutter is a respected and ethical person, who is obviously a successful
investor. Would these people risk going to jail to perpetuate a fraud? They already have all the money they could need. Why take the risk? What about the medical experts? Are Harin Padma-Nathan, Irwin Goldstein and David Ferguson going to risk their careers and maybe more by deliberately misleading people? We have already heard Dr.Ferguson's response to that. Where does Pharmaco fit into all of this? They are, by all accounts, a reputable
testing organization. Are they going to sacrifice their future to be a part of this conspiracy? Finally, was Schering Plough taken in by this fraud? Are they less able to analyze a drug's potential than Asensio, or are they a knowing participant in perpetuating this "failure to disclose material negative information?" The following is excerpted word for word from the October 19th edition of the Houston Chronicle:
>> A Schering-Plough spokesman said Asensio's statements should be examined in the context of his short position.
"Schering-Plough is pleased to have entered into this agreement with Zonagen and is confident that as an oral therapy, Vasomax represents a therapeutic advance" in the treatment of male impotence, said spokesman William O'Donnell.
"Prior to signing this agreement, Schering-Plough conducted its due diligence investigation, including reviews of the clinical trials and patent matters," he said. <<
The above scenario is just too far fetched for me to take seriously. Obviously there are some who have been taken in by this. I must believe that sooner or later, investors will regain their sanity and jump on what is now an extraordinary opportunity to buy this stock. Watching the stock today was to see panic by uninformed or vulnerable investors and deft selling by the shorts. I agree that an SEC investigation is warranted. This smells to
high heaven! I too would like S-P to step up. They did in the Chronicle. Maybe Joe Kernan or David Faber should give Mr. O'Donnell a call.
I would also like to see Zonagen be more aggressive in their response. Perhaps they are planning to. Certainly, I can understand their responsible desire to stay focused on the big picture, which we all know to be FDA approval. Do not forget, that is the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.
Ah, but short term, anything can happen. We could tumble down in a panic or explode upwards, propelled by shorts scrambling to cover. Remember those days? They may return sooner than some would expect. I will make one, humble prediction. The stock closed today at 28 1/2. Asensio's target is 5, a fall of 23 1/2 points. A rise of 23 1/2 would take us to 52. I bet it will hit 52 before it hits 5. Let's get ready to rumble!!
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